[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152242
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa
near 06N11W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to 09N between
28W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow moving cold front stretches from 29N83W to 20N94W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the front,
with the highest concentration east of 87W. Some fresh to strong N
to NE winds are occurring behind this front, especially in the
central Gulf. Seas range between 6 and 18 ft in the area of
strongest winds. A thermal trough is exiting the western coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula, but thus far no convection has initiated
in association with it. High pressure is building across the
northern portion of the basin in the wake of the front. Moderate
smoke from agricultural fires exists across much of the southwest
and south central Gulf. The northerly flow may be improving
visibility a little off the coast of Veracruz, but southerly flow
off the Yucatan Peninsula is continuing to bring smoke into the
south central Gulf.

The cold front will weaken and stall over the SE Gulf Thu, then
dissipate by Fri. Another cold front will enter the northern Gulf
Fri night and early Sat, then stall and lift northward as a warm
front Sat night ahead of yet another cold front approaching the
Texas coast by late Sun. The smoke from agricultural fires in
southern Mexico and Honduras will continue to reduce visibility at
times over the southwest and south central Gulf through the next
few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered over the north central Atlantic with a
ridge axis extending to the Greater Antilles is supporting fresh
E winds off the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras, and
seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate trades prevail with seas
of 4 to 6 ft. Smoke front agricultural fires over southern Mexico
and northern parts of Central America is leading to moderate
visibility restrictions across much of the western Caribbean. With
high pressure dominating, dry conditions are occurring across the
basin.

The high pressure will remain centered over the north central
Atlantic and will build south and strengthen into the weekend.
This will lead to an overall increase in wind speeds, with nightly
pulses of strong winds expected both off the coast of Colombia and
in the Gulf of Honduras. Smoke from inland agricultural fires
will continue to reduce visibility off the Yucatan Peninsula and
offshore of Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 mb high pressure centered over the north central Atlantic
near 34N47W has a ridge axis that extends to the Turks and Caicos
Islands. A cold front is exiting the Georgia and South Carolina
coast this evening. Ahead of it, fresh S winds are ongoing N of
27N and W of 70W. Seas in this area are estimated to be 5 to 7
ft. Another cold front stretches from the Canary Islands to
25N37W. Some moderate to fresh winds are located on both sides of
this weakening cold front. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
noted across the tropical Atlantic, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Northerly
swell of 8 to 10 ft is moving W of the Canary Islands.

A cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast will stretch from
Bermuda to SE FL Thu, then weaken and move E to SE of Bermuda Fri
and Sat. Strong N winds are expected behind the front Thu into Thu
night. A surface ridge will dominate the area in the wake of the
front. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds over the north
waters on Sat ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the
forecast waters by Sat night. The weakening cold front in the E
Atlantic will dissipate Thu.

$$
KONARIK
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