[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
112 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa
near 06N10W, to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to
00N33W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
00N-10N between 32W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 30N84W to 25N90W. The front becomes
stationary from 25N90W to 19N96W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted along the front, with the highest
concentration east of 87W. Earlier scatterometer data depicted
fresh to strong northerly winds over the western Gulf, west of
the front. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft in this area. A
thermal trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 23N91W to
18N94W. No convection is related to this feature. High pressure
is building across the northern portion of the basin, in the
wake of the front. The latest analysis from this morning
indicated moderate smoke from agricultural fires across much of
the southwest and south central Gulf. The northerly flow may be
improving visibility a little off the coast of Veracruz, but
southerly flow off the Yucatan Peninsula is continuing to bring
smoke into the south central Gulf.

The front will begin to stall and weaken from southwestern
Florida to 25N87W by late Thu, before dissipating through Fri. A
weaker cold front will enter the northern Gulf Fri night and
Sat, then stall and lift northward as a warm front Sat night
ahead of yet another cold front approaching the Texas coast by
late Sun. The smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico
and Honduras will continue to reduce visibility at times over
the southwest and south central Gulf through the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extending from the north central Atlantic to the
eastern Gulf of Mexico is supporting fresh to strong winds off
Colombia, as verified by earlier scatterometer data and a recent
ship observation. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft in that
area. Fresh to strong winds are likely along the Bay Islands in
the Gulf of Honduras as well. Moderate trades are noted
elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Latest analysis indicated dense
smoke from agricultural fires over
southern Mexico and northern Central America was probably
extending across much of the west Caribbean, mainly west of 85W.
The easterly winds may be mitigating some of the impact from
eastern Honduras to the Cayman Islands, but it is likely dense
smoke is lingering in the Gulf of Honduras and northward along
the coast of Belize and the Yucatan peninsula. A very dry
pattern persists across the basin, regional radar shows only
isolated showers over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico.

High pressure north of the area will maintain pulses of fresh to
strong winds near the coast of Colombia through Fri night.
Expect fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night
Fri through Sun. Smoke from inland agricultural fires will
continue to reduce visibility off the Yucatan Peninsula and
offshore of Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered over
the north central Atlantic near 35N46N through the northern
Bahamas. Moderate to fresh southerly wind are ongoing north of
27N and west of 70W, between the ridge and a cold front over the
northern Gulf that is slowly approaching the area. Seas in this
area are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Farther east, a weakening
cold front reaches from 31N22W to 27N38W, then becomes
stationary from that point to 23N47W. Moderate to fresh NE winds
were evident on the west side of the front, but these winds will
continue diminishing as the front dissipates. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are noted across the tropical Atlantic, with 5 to 7
ft seas. Northerly swell of 8 to 10 ft is moving into the waters
off northeast Africa, north of 28N.

A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast today,
reach from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral, Florida late today, from
Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by late Thu, then move east of
the area Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected
behind the front Thu and Thu night. A surface ridge will
dominate the area in the wake of the front. Expect fresh to
strong southerly winds over the north waters on Sat ahead of the
next cold front forecast to enter the forecast waters by Sat
night.

$$
ERA
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