[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N11W, to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to
01N30W to 021N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
03N-04N between 35W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front reaches from near Apalachicola, Florida to Poza Rica,
Mexico near 21N97W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active
along the front this morning, mainly within 60 nm of the Florida
coast. Earlier scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong
northerly winds over the western Gulf, west of the front. Seas are
estimated to be 5 to 8 ft in this area. An analysis from
yesterday indicated moderate smoke from agricultural fires across
much of the southwest and south central Gulf. The northerly flow
may be improving visibility a little off the coast of Veracruz,
but southerly flow off the Yucatan Peninsula is continuing to
bring smoke into the south central Gulf.

The front will continue drifting southeast and will reach
Sarasota Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late today. The front
will begin to stall and weaken from southwestern Florida to 25N87W
late Thu, before dissipating through Fri. A weaker cold front
will enter the northern Gulf Fri night and Sat, then stall and
lift northward as a warm front Sat night ahead of yet another
front approaching the Texas coast by late Sun. Smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras will continue
to reduce visibility at times over the southwest and south central
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extending from the north central Atlantic to the eastern
Gulf of Mexico is supporting fresh to strong winds off Colombia
this morning, as verified by earlier scatterometer satellite data
and a recent ship observation. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft
in that area. Fresh to strong winds are likely along the Bay
Islands in the Gulf of Honduras as well. Generally moderate E to
SE winds are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas. An analysis
from yesterday indicated dense smoke from agricultural fires over
southern Mexico and northern Central America was probably
extendingacross much of the northwest Caribbean, west of 90W.
The E to SE winds may be mitigating some of the impact from
eastern Honduras to the Cayman Islands, but it is likely dense
smoke is lingering in the Gulf of Honduras and northward along
the coast of Belize and the Yucatan peninsula. A very dry pattern
persists across the basin, and regional radar is showing only
isolated showers over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico.

High pressure north of the area will maintain pulses of fresh to
strong winds near the coast of Colombia through Thu. Winds and
seas over much of the basin will diminish through late week as
high pressure north of area weakens and shifts eastward. Smoke
from inland agricultural fires will continue to reduce visibility
off the Yucatan peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered over
the north central Atlantic near 36N46N through the northern
Bahamas. Fresh to strong southerly wind are ongoing north of 28N
and west of 70W, between the ridge and a cold front over the
northeast Gulf that is slowly approaching the area. Seas in this
area are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms were active earlier off northeast Florida, but have
since diminished. Thunderstorms are ongoing however just north of
the area over the Gulf Stream, off the Georgia and Carolina
coasts. Elsewhere moderate E to SE winds are noted west of 70W
with seas 4 to 6 ft in open waters.

The cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast today,
reach from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral, Florida late today, from
Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by late Thu, then move east of
the area Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind
the front on Thu. A ridge extending along 30N Sat will start to
drift south Sun ahead of another front approaching the area
through early next week.

Farther east, a weakening cold front reaches from 32N27W to
28N40W, then is a dissipating stationary front to 23N55W. Fresh to
strong NE winds were evident earlier on the west side of the
front, but these winds are diminishing. Seas to 8 ft linger near
29N55W, but will likewise subside through the morning. Moderate
to fresh trade winds are noted across the tropical Atlantic, with
5 to 7 ft seas. Northerly swell of 8 to 10 ft is moving into the
waters off northeast Africa, north of 28N.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net