[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
110 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-08N and
east of 30W, while scattered showers are noted south of 07N and
west of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from 30N84W to 25N93W to 25N97W. A
pre-frontal trough was analyzed from 30N83W to 28N85W. Scattered
showers are noted along this trough and the front, mainly east
of 90W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate northerly
winds prevailing north of the front, while light to gentle
southerly winds are noted south of the front. To the southwest,
a 1010 mb surface low is centered near 21N94W. An area of
moderate southeasterly winds prevail east of the low from 20N-
25N between 88W-92W. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across the
basin.

The frontal boundary will begin to move today across the Gulf
waters as a second push of cold air reaches the area. The front
will move across the basin through Thursday, then become
stationary on Friday. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
building seas are expected in the wake of the front through Thu.
Another cold front is expected to move over the northern Gulf by
Fri night, then stall and lift northward as a warm front by late
Sat. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and
Honduras will continue to reduce visibility at times over the
south central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends from the central Atlantic to the
northwest Caribbean. With this, gentle to moderate easterly
winds are noted across the basin, pulsing to fresh at night and
early morning. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the area. No
significant thunderstorm activity is noted over the Caribbean at
this time, but fast-moving isolated showers are noted on
regional radar over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support the
pulses of fresh to strong winds off Colombia and Honduras
through mid week. Winds and seas over much of the basin will
diminish through late week as high pressure weakens and shifts
eastward. Smoke from inland agricultural fires may limit
visibility at times off the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of
Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cluster of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is
ongoing north of 28N and west of 74W ahead of a cold front,
currently north of the area. Winds and seas may be higher near
these thunderstorms, and frequent lightning is observed from
recent satellite data. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh southerly winds in this area, with seas of 6-8 ft.

Farther east, a frontal system was analyzed as a cold front from
31N37W to 28N40W, then continues as a stationary front from that
point to 22N55W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft
are ongoing within 240 nm west of the front. These winds and
seas will diminish through tonight as the front weakens.

The cold front previously mentioned will move off the northeast
Florida coast on Wed, reaching from 31N73W to South Florida by
Thu morning, and from 28N65W to the Straits of Florida by Thu
night, then stall along 25N on Fri, and lift northward while
weakening through Fri night. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
expected behind the front on Thu. A surface ridge extending
along 30N will start to drift south this weekend ahead of the
next front approaching the area through early next week.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net