[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W
to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 01N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-
06N between 14W-19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A quasi-stationary front extends from Panama City, Florida to
Tampico Mexico. A prefrontal surface trough extends from the
Florida Big Bend area in the northeast Gulf to 21N94W in the
southwest Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms are active in a line along
and between the front and the trough across the northeast and
north central Gulf. Fresh southerly winds are noted over the
south central Gulf, with mostly moderate winds elsewhere. Seas
are generally 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf this morning. An analysis
from yesterday showed smoke from agricultural fires over the
Yucatan peninsula continue to impact the south central Gulf, but
conditions seemed to have improved over the southwest Gulf due to
northerly flow.

The front will drift slowly eastward and reach from the Florida
Big Bend area to Veracruz Mexico by late Wed. The front will
continue to drift southward and reach from southwestern Florida to
the Bay of Campeche Thu, before becoming stationary and weakening
through Fri. Another cold front is expected to move over the
northern Gulf Fri night and Sat, then stall and lift northward as
a warm front Sat night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern
Mexico and Honduras will probably continue to reduce visibility
at times over the south central Gulf, and increasingly over the
southwest Gulf by late in the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extending from the central Atlantic to the
northwest Caribbean is supporting pulses of fresh to strong
easterly winds off Honduras and Colombia this morning, with 8 to
10 ft seas in these areas. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
elsewhere, with generally 5 to 7 ft seas. An analysis from
yesterday determined smoke from agricultural fires was limiting
visibility from the coast of Honduras to the Caribbean coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula. No significant thunderstorm activity is
noted over the Caribbean this morning, but fast-moving scattered
showers are noted on regional radar in the trade wind flow across
the southern Leeward and northern Windward Islands, with isolated
showers over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, winds and seas over much of the basin will
diminish from mid through late week as the high pressure north of
the area weakens and shifts eastward. Smoke from inland
agricultural fires will probably continue to limit visibility at
times off the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cluster of scattered to numerous thunderstorms is ongoing north
of 30N between 75W and 80W. This activity is over the warmer
waters of the Gulf Stream, and is ahead of a surface trough and
frontal boundary well to the west over the northeast Gulf,
drifting eastward. Much of the upper dynamics supporting this
thunderstorm activity is lifting northward, and this activity is
diminishing south of 32N. Winds and seas may be higher near these
thunderstorms, and frequent lightning is observed from recent
satellite data.

Fresh southerly winds and seas 6 to 8 ft are also noted north of
27N and west of 70W, but this is also starting to subside. These
winds are observed between the trough to the west, and a surface
ridge reaching from the central Atlantic through the central
Bahamas.

Southerly wind and seas will increase again, as the cold front
over the northern Gulf of Mexico moves slowly eastward and
eventually moves off the northeast Florida coast Wed. The front
will reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by late Thu, stall
along 25N early Fri, then lift northward as a warm front while
weakening through Fri night. A ridge extending along 30N Sat will
start to drift south Sat night ahead of another front approaching
the area through early next week.

Farther east, another cold front is analyzed from 32N38W to
20N60W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are ongoing
within 240 nm west of the front. These winds and seas will
diminish through tonight as the front starts to stall and
dissipate.

$$
Christensen
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