[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100955
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
555 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Guinea-
Bissau near 11N13W to 05N18W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from
03N25W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 01N-03N between 21W-24W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 02N-04N between 42W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends along the north Gulf coast from near Mobile
Bay, Alabama to Galveston Bay, Texas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing along the front, mainly off the Alabama
and Mississippi coasts, and along the northern Texas coast. Weak
high pressure covers the remainder of the Gulf, with little shower
or thunderstorm activity noted. Fresh northerly winds are likely
occurring long the northern Gulf coast near the front. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in most
areas. Platforms in the northwest Gulf report fog and haze with
visibilities 6 nm or greater. Smoke from agricultural fires over
southern Mexico may be reducing visibility to 4 to 6 nm over the
southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front entering the northern Gulf will
stall across the central Gulf tonight. Strong southerly winds and
building seas will follow the western half this front over the
western and central Gulf as it lifts north of the area as a warm
front through Sun ahead of another front approaching the northwest
Gulf. The second front move off the Texas coast late Sun,
followed by a weak reinforcing front early Mon. The fronts will
merge then continue to slowly drift south, reaching from southwest
Florida to near Tampico Mexico through mid week. Meanwhile, smoke
from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibility
over the southwest Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak 1014 mb high pressure over central Cuba is maintaining gentle
to moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 seas across the basin this
morning, except for off Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras where
moderate to fresh winds are pulsing. Seas are probably 4 to 6 ft
off Colombia. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
noted.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure north of the area
will maintain pulses of moderate to fresh winds off Colombia and
in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat, with gentle to moderate trade
winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will build early next week as
high pressure strengthens north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 60W...a cold front is just north of the area extending
across the western Atlantic to just north of the Florida-Georgia
border, moving east at 10-15 kt. Fresh to strong winds were
evident on earlier scatterometer data north of 28N between 60W and
65W. These winds are likely diminishing however as high pressure
to the north weakens ahead of the advancing front. Seas are 6 to 9
ft in the area of fresh to strong winds. Farther south, gentle to
moderate winds persist with 3 to 5 ft seas in the open waters east
of the Bahamas. No significant shower or thunderstorms activity
is noted.

For the forecast, the A cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast
this morning will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida
tonight. Winds will diminish as the front stalls and weakens
along roughly 25N through the central Bahamas Sun. Southerly
winds will increase late Sun and Mon off northeast Florida ahead
of another front expected to move off the coast Mon night. The
second front will stall from 31N77W to central Florida through
mid week.

Farther east, 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 30N39W,
maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds with 6 to 8 ft seas.
Strong winds are evident off the coast of northwest Africa with
7 to 10 ft seas.

$$
Christensen
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