[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0420 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W, to 04N18W, and 03N25W. The
ITCZ continues from 03N25W, to 04N29W, 02N40W, and to 01N49W,
near the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong from 02N to 04N between 19W and 22W; in the middle of the
ITCZ between 41W and 43W, within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ
between 44W and 48W, and from 01N to 03N between 49W and the
coast of Brazil. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 01N to 02N between 01W and 03W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has been moving southward, through the southern
U.S.A. The cold front now passes through central Georgia, to the
coastal plains of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and westward,
beyond the upper Texas Gulf coastal plains. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the northwest
of the line from the coast of the Deep south of Texas and NE
Mexico near 25N97W to the Florida Big Bend.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the open waters of
the Gulf of Mexico.

The current U.S.A. northern coastal plains cold front, that is
approaching the northern Gulf of Mexico, will stall across the
central Gulf of Mexico, through Friday night. Strong S winds,
and building seas, will follow the western half of this front in
the central Gulf of Mexico, as the front moves to the north of
the area as a warm front through Sunday. A second cold front
will be approaching the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The second
cold front will stall, from the northeast Gulf of Mexico to the
west central Gulf by late Monday.

A weak reinforcement on Tuesday will allow the cold front to
continue to drift into the southeast Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week. It is possible that smoke, from agricultural
fires in southern Mexico, may reduce the visibility in the SW
Gulf of Mexico and in the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.
An upper level ridge extends from NW Colombia, northwestward
along the center of Central America.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level to middle
level clouds, especially from 16N southward.

Relatively modest high pressure to the north of the area will
maintain pulses of moderate to fresh winds off the coast of
Colombia, and in the Gulf of Honduras, through Saturday. Expect
gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. The wind speeds will
increase, and the sea heights will build, early next week, as
high pressure strengthens to the north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 mb low pressure center is near 33N27W. A cold front
extends from the 1019 mb low pressure center to 31N29W to
26N34W, to 21N40W. A second surface trough is along 23N to 24N
between 47W and 55W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 26N between 20W and 33W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 20N to 27N between 34W and 64W.

A frontal boundary is along 34N/35N from 50W westward.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 30N northward between 53W and 60W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 26N to 29N between 61W and 65W.

Fresh to strong SW winds, in the waters to the north of 27N,
will diminish overnight. A cold front is expected to move off
the NE Florida coast later in the morning. The front will reach
from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida on Friday night. The wind
speeds will diminish, as the front stalls and weakens along
roughly 25N,  through the central Bahamas on Sunday. Southerly
winds will increase late on Sunday and on Monday, off northeast
Florida. A second cold front is expected to move off the coast
on Monday night. The second cold front will stall from 31N77W to
central Florida, through late Tuesday.

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net