[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM Thu Apr 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea near 10N15W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to
04N20W to 01N40W to 03N50W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong near Liberia from 04N to 08N between 08W and 13W.
Scattered moderate within 60 nm of the ITCZ axis between 19W and
26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, both
aloft and at the surface. A 1015 mb high pressure center is
analyzed near 26N84W. A cold front will reach the northern Gulf
of Mexico tonight, then stall and weaken across the southern
Gulf of Mexico by Friday night. Southerly winds will increase
across the basin during this weekend as a low pressure system
tracks across the southern U.S. Another cold front will move
into the NW Gulf on Mon. It is possible that smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce the
visibilities in the SW Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.
A surface trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 22N50W
to 18N60W, to Puerto Rico. Precipitation: Rain showers are
possible, in areas of broken low level to middle level clouds,
from 17N to 24N between 60W and 74W. Rain showers are possible
elsewhere from 16N southward from 75W westward, and the rest
of the area west of 75W.

Moist southerly flow is expected to increase gradually across
parts of Central America and Colombia the next three days. Large
scale conditions are forecast to become favorable for enhanced
convective precipitation through the middle of next week.
Locally heavy rainfall, over an inch per day, is possible in
parts of southern Costa Rica, Panama, western Colombia and
northwestern Ecuador during this time period.

High pressure over the SW N Atlantic will support fresh to
strong winds near the coast of Colombia through tonight.
Fresh winds will pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras,
becoming strong this weekend. Long-period northerly swell will
affect the waters E of the Lesser Antilles tonight through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough passes through 32N42W to 22N50W to 18N60W to
Puerto Rico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and widely scattered moderate rain showers are within 400
to 600 nm east-southeast of the surface trough north of 24N.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers are within 300
to 400 nm east-southeast of the surface trough from 20N to 24N
from 50W eastward. Rain showers are possible elsewhere within
300 nm north of the surface trough between 50W and Puerto Rico.

A trough will move across the northern waters through tonight.
Fresh to strong winds are expected east of this trough axis.
A cold front will move across the region Fri through Sat night.
Southerly winds will increase east of Florida Sun through Mon as
a developing low pressure system moves off the U.S. east coast.

$$
DM/MT
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