[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM Thu Apr 09 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0420 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea near 10N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to
03N26W, 03N39W, crossing the Equator along 44W, to the coast of
Brazil near 01S45W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
near Liberia from 04N to 06N between 08W and 10W. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 08N southward from 40W eastward, and
from 10N southward between 40W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 25N88W. A cold
front will reach the northern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night,
then stall and weaken across the southern Gulf of Mexico by
Friday night. Southerly winds will increase across the basin
during this weekend. Another cold front is forecast to reach the
NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The cold front will extend from the
Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche on Monday. It is
possible that smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico
may reduce the visibilities in the SW Gulf of Mexico and in the
Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb shows a ridge that starts near 10N75W
in northern Colombia, beyond northern sections of Costa Rica, to
13N90W in the eastern Pacific Ocean, to 13N103W. Broad upper
level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

A surface trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 22N50W,
to 18N60W, and into the Caribbean Sea, to Puerto Rico.
Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low
level to middle level clouds, from 17N to 24N between 60W and
74W. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from 16N southward
from 75W westward, and in the remainder of the area that is from
75W westward.

Moist southerly flow is expected to increase gradually, across
parts of Central America and Colombia. Large-scale conditions
are forecast to become favorable for enhanced convective
precipitation, from Thursday through the middle of the next
week. These ingredients appear to be favorable in order to be
possible to promote locally heavy rainfall in parts of southern
Costa Rica, Panama, western Colombia and northwestern Ecuador,
during this time period. An example is that it is likely that
western Colombia may receive 1 inch to 2 inches of rain per day,
with isolated amounts of 3 inches to 4 inches of rain per day,
for the next 3 days.

High pressure in the SW N Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to
strong winds near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of
Venezuela, through Thursday night. Fresh winds will pulse each
night in the Gulf of Honduras, becoming strong this weekend.
Long-period northerly swell will affect the waters that are to
the east of the Lesser Antilles, from Thursday night through
Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough passes through 32N42W to 22N50W, to 18N60W, to
Puerto Rico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 400 nm to 600 nm to the east and
southeast of the surface trough, from 24N northward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 300 nm to 400
nm to the east and southeast of the surface trough from 20N to
24N from 50W eastward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere within
300 nm to the north of the surface trough, between 50W and
Puerto Rico.

A ridge will dominate the waters S of 27N, while a trough will
move across the northern waters tonight and Thursday. Expect
fresh to strong winds, mainly E of the trough axis. A cold front
will move SE across the region, from Thursday night through
Saturday night. Southerly winds will increase to the east of
Florida, from Saturday night through Sunday night, possibly
reaching gale force N of 30N.

$$
MT
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