[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070957
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
556 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the southern coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to
01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. An area of strong
convection is noted along the ITCZ from 02N to 04N between 20W
and 24W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is occurring
within 180 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is analyzed from the Straits of Florida to
25N85W, where it transitions to a warm front and continues to
29N94W. Recent oil platform reports indicate some areas of fog
south of this front over the NW Gulf, with visibilities generally
3-5 nm. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across most of the
basin, except for some fresh winds noted in overnight
scatterometer data near the northern Yucatan coast. An earlier
altimeter pass indicates seas are running 3-6 ft within these
fresh winds, while elsewhere seas remain 3 ft or less.

A warm front lifting across the north-central Gulf will weaken
and move inland later today into tonight. High pressure will build
over the NE Gulf today and pass southward across the eastern Gulf
through Wed night. A cold front will approach the northern Gulf
Coast Thu and Thu night, move across the northern Gulf waters Fri,
then stall and weaken Fri night into Sat. Expect strengthening
southerly winds across the Gulf Sat night as low pressure deepens
over the SE United States. Smoke from agricultural fires in
southern Mexico may reduce visibilities over the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are ongoing near the coast of Colombia and
over the Gulf of Venezuela between the Colombian low and a high
pressure ridge building over the SW N Atlantic. Seas likely peak
around 8-10 ft offshore of Barranquilla within the strongest
winds. Fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to
fresh winds are occurring elsewhere over the southern Caribbean,
while light to moderate trades prevail across the rest of the
basin. Dry air associated with a mid-level ridge over the NW
Caribbean continues to suppress any convective activity over the
basin.

High pressure will build over the SW N Atlantic waters through
mid-week, which will support fresh to strong winds along the coast
of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh winds will pulse
each night over the Gulf of Honduras, possibly reaching strong
speeds by this weekend. A low pressure trough will linger in the
vicinity of the Leeward Islands through tonight. Long-period
northerly swell will continue affecting the waters east of the
Lesser Antilles through tonight. Another round of northerly swell
will impact these waters late Thu night into this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Moderate to locally fresh winds continue off the coast of southern
Florida, north of a stationary front that extends through the
Straits of Florida to near Andros Island. Isolated showers persist
near the front between the Florida Keys and Andros Island. High
pressure is building across the rest of the western Atlantic,
anchored by a 1020 mb high near 29N73W. A trough is analyzed over
the central Atlantic from 21N51W to the USVI near 18N65W. Another
central Atlantic trough extends from 31N30W to 24N42W, with
scattered shower activity noted within 150 nm SE of this trough. A
high pressure ridge persists across the eastern Atlantic, with
1021 mb high pressure centered W-SW of the Canary Islands near
27N23W. Northerly swell remains over much of the central Atlantic
waters this morning, with 8-14 ft seas found N of 25N between 35W
and 50W.

The stationary front referenced above will weaken today and
dissipate by tonight. High pressure offshore of Florida will track
SE through Wed, then maintain a ridge across the southern
offshore waters through late week. A low pressure trough will
cross the northern offshore waters Wed night and Thu. A cold front
is expected to move SE across the SW N Atlantic waters late Thu
night through Sat night.

$$
B Reinhart
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