[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the southern coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to 00N31W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S45W. An area of strong convection is
moving along the ITCZ from 01N-05N between 18W-23W. Otherwise,
scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 07/0300 UTC, a stationary front stretches westward from a 1017
mb near 24N80W to 28N94W. Showers are near the low moving off the
South Florida coast. Light to gentle winds are seen across most
of the Gulf with moderate to fresh winds off the northern Yucatan
coast. Seas are up to 3 ft.

A nearly stationary front will weaken Tue into Tue night. High
pressure will build over the NE Gulf Tue and pass southward across
the eastern Gulf through Wed night. A cold front will approach
the northern Gulf Coast Thu, move across the northern Gulf waters
late Thu night and Fri, then stall and weaken Fri night into Sat.
Southerly winds may strengthen across the eastern Gulf Sat night
as low pressure develops over the SE United States. Elsewhere,
smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce
visibilities over the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air associated with a mid- level ridge over the NW Caribbean
continues to limit any convective activity over the basin. Some
isolated showers are seen around Puerto Rico. A weak high
pressure ridge over the SW N Atlantic is producing a pressure
gradient that supports fresh to locally strong easterly winds near
the coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Seas likely peak around 8-10
ft offshore of Barranquilla within the strongest winds. Moderate
to fresh winds are noted elsewhere over the southern Caribbean.
For the remainder of the basin, light to moderate trades prevail
across the rest of the basin.

High pressure will build over the SW N Atlantic waters through
mid-week, which will support fresh to strong winds along the coast
of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh winds will
pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras, possibly reaching
strong speeds by this weekend. A low pressure trough will linger
in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands into Tue. Long-period
northerly swell will continue affecting the waters east of the
Lesser Antilles through Tue night. Another round of northerly
swell will impact these waters Thu night into this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the Bahamas from 25N80W to
24N77W. Isolated showers are moving near this front. High pressure
covers the rest of the western Atlantic anchored by a 1021 mb high
near 29N74W. A trough is located in the central Atlantic from
29N34W to the USVI near 18N65W. An area of scattered thunderstorms
is near the trough from 24N-32N between 33W-42W. High pressure
dominates the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb high near
27N24W, southwest of the Canary Islands.

Weak low pressure near the Florida Keys, along with a stationary
front over the Straits of Florida, will linger into Tue before
dissipating Tue night. Lingering northerly swell over the NE
portion will subside by Tue. High pressure off the SE U.S. coast
will track SE across the offshore waters through Wed, then maintain
a ridge across the southern waters through late week. SW to W
winds will strengthen Thu over the northern waters, ahead of a
cold front that is expected to move across the waters N of 22N
late Thu night through Sat night.

$$
AReinhart
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