[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force winds are ongoing over the
northwest Atlantic through Sunday morning, 05/1200 UTC. Gale force
west to northwest winds will be ongoing to the waters north of
30N and between 61W and 66W due to a deep low pressure system
north of the area and a cold front is pressing eastward across the
central Atlantic. Wave heights in this area will range 16-18 ft.
As the low pressure system weakens and shifts ESE, the associated
wind and wave conditions will diminish by Sun morning, moving in
tandem with the low and cold front. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 07N12W to 06N14W. It transitions to the ITCZ from that point
to 00N32W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm on either side of the ITCZ and south
of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 0300 UTC, a 1009 mb surface low was located at 27N94W with a
forming warm front extending east of the low to 26N84W. A cold
front extends south of the low to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is northwest of the low
27N-29N between 88W-93W. The latest scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh southerly winds just south of the warm front
with near-gale force winds north of the low. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are north of the Yucatan. Otherwise, light to
gentle southeasterly winds are in the eastern Gulf and fresh to
strong NE winds are in the NW Gulf. Smoke from agricultural fires
in southern Mexico may be causing minor limitations to visibility
over the SW Gulf.

A slow-moving cold front extending from SW Louisiana to near
Brownsville, Texas will drift SE overnight, then stall and weaken
over the northern Gulf Sun into Sun night. Expect strong winds
with minimal gale force gusts across the NW Gulf overnight behind
the front. High pressure will build over the SW N Atlantic early
next week, with a ridge expected to extend westward across the
eastern Gulf. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each
evening north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Looking ahead,
another cold front may move into the NW Gulf late Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level ridging is bringing dry air across the basin. Scattered
showers are north of Puerto Rico, otherwise no shower activity is
noted anywhere in the Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh winds north of Colombia. Moderate to
fresh winds are also noted in the Windward Passage. Light to
gentle trades are in the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate
trades elsewhere.

Winds over the basin will gradually increase through the middle
of next week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.
Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse each night beginning
tonight over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds with
locally higher seas will prevail along the coast of Colombia
through the middle of next week. Long-period northerly swell will
continue affecting the Caribbean passages through Sun night, then
gradually subside early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale
warning currently in effect for the northwest Atlantic.

A cold front is in the central Atlantic, entering the waters near
31N42W and extends southwest to 24N53W to NE Hispaniola near
19N69W. Showers are within 60 nm of the cold front N of 24N and W
of 36W. A surface trough is noted in the central Atlantic from
28N60W to 23N64W. Farther east, a 1018 mb high pressure is
analyzed near 23N31W. A cold front is beginning to move inland in
Morocco and Western Sahara. Showers are seen moving across the
Canary Islands. The latest scatterometer data depicts gale force
winds N of 29N and between 62W-64W. Widespread fresh to strong
winds are seen N of 26N between 37W-70W.

A deep low pressure system NE of the area will produce strong to
near gale force winds N of 27N E of 70W overnight. Northerly swell
generated by the low will produce very large seas across the
waters east and northeast of the Bahamas through Mon. Elsewhere, a
slow-moving cold front extending from 22N58W to the eastern tip
of the Dominican Republic will pass east of the Leeward Islands by
Mon morning. High pressure will move SE across the northern
waters Mon through Tue night, then maintain a ridge across the
central waters through the middle of next week.
$$
AReinhart
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