[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
737 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force winds are expected over the
northwest Atlantic this evening through early Sunday. A cold
front, associated with a deep and complex low pressure system
north of the area, will bring gale-force west to northwest winds
to the waters north of 30N and between 61W and 66W. Wave heights
in this area will range 16-18 ft. The associated low pressure
center will shift ESE over the next 24 hours and weaken slightly.
The associated wind and wave conditions south of 31N will
diminish slightly by Sun morning, moving in tandem with the
low/front. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force before
sunrise Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product,
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
07N11.5W to 05.5N15W, then transitions to the ITCZ from that
point to 01.5S45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm
on either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front currently extends just offshore of the Texas
coastline from the Texas-Louisiana border SW across the coastal
waters to just north of Brownsville. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the vicinity of the front, mainly north of
26N and west of 91W. To the southeast of the front, surface
observations depict light to moderate E to SE winds across most
of the basin except north of the front, where fresh N to NW
winds are expected to prevail. Smoke from agricultural fires in
southern Mexico may be causing minor limitations to visibility
over the SW Gulf.

A weak high pressure ridge over the eastern Gulf will shift
eastward tonight, ahead of this cold front moving into the NW
Gulf today. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the
coast of Mexico near 24N98W tonight, with fresh to strong N to NE
winds expected behind the front. Wind gusts to minimal gale force
winds may occur. The front will become stationary early Sun before
it lifts back north as a warm front during the day Sun. High
pressure from off the Carolina coast will slide southward early
next week setting up an east to west ridge across the area. Fresh
to strong winds will pulse each evening north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula through the period due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is noted across the basin as a weak and
narrow ridge extends SE across the Bahamas. Very dry air aloft is
indicated by a strong subsidence signal in water vapor imagery
dominating the west half of the basin. The exception is the E
part of the basin along 15N-16N, where scattered to broken low
clouds with possible showers are present. Late morning scatterometer
data depicted moderate to fresh east winds south of 16N to the
east of 80W, with a small area of strong northeast to east winds
along and near the coast of Colombia. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate east winds elsewhere.

Winds over the basin will gradually increase through the middle
of next week as high pressure rebuilds over the western Atlantic.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse each night beginning tonight over
the Gulf of Honduras and especially along the coast of Colombia.
Long-period northerly swell moving through the Atlantic waters
and through the Caribbean Passages over the next few days will
subside by the middle of the week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale
warning currently in effect for the northwest Atlantic.

A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N42W to
22N60W then become nearly stationary to northern Hispaniola near
19N71W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
along the cold front, while scattered showers are noted along the
stationary front. High pressure prevails west of the front, to the
west of 65W as a weak and narrow ridge extends from the SE U.S. to
north of Hispaniola. A 1015 mb high pressure center prevails east
of the front, centered near 23N37W. Morning scatterometer data
depicted an extensive area of fresh to strong west to northwest
winds north of 26N and west of the front to 73W. Strong west to
southwest winds were noted within 120 nm either side of the cold
front to the north of 27N. In the far eastern Atlantic, a
stationary front extends from 31N13W to near 22N19W. Lack of
atmospheric forcing due to dry sinking air aloft as seen in water
vapor imagery, along with dust in this area of the Atlantic is
suppressing shower and thunderstorm activity with this front.

The front over the central Atlantic will slowly move southeastward
and reach the northern Leeward Islands by Mon morning. Gale
conditions are expected north of 30N between 61W and 66W this
evening till early Sun as a deep low pressure system located N of
area shifts ESE, and passed just east of Bermuda Sun morning.
North swell generated by the low will produce very large seas
across the waters east and northeast of the Bahamas through
Monday. High pressure will shift southward over the north-
central waters Mon night into Tue.

$$
Stripling
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