[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040515
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A gale is forecast to start over the central Atlantic tonight, and
last through early Sunday. A cold front will produce gale force winds
north of 30N between 53W-58W with seas 15-18 ft. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N14W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N37W
to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of both boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is approaching the NW Gulf of Mexico. As of 04/0300
UTC, the front is located just west of Houston and just west of
Corpus Christi, then crosses the Texas/Mexico border near
27N99W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is mostly
inland over Texas, but starting to emerge into the NW Gulf,
currently from 27N-32N between 94W-99W. Some scattered showers
are seen over the central Gulf. This is due to abundant moisture
seen on TPW imagery and upper-level diffluence in the area. Weak
high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf is maintaining
gentle winds across much of the eastern Gulf. Moderate easterly
winds are noted over the western Gulf, except over the south-
central Gulf due to the thermal trough from the west coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern
Mexico may be causing minor limitations to visibility over the
southwest Gulf.

Weak high pressure ridging over the eastern Gulf will
shift eastward through tonight in response to low pressure and
an associated cold front that is advancing eastward over the
central U.S. The front is expected to reach the Texas coast today,
then become stationary before it lifts back north as a warm front
Sun. This front will trigger showers and thunderstorms over the
far NW Gulf through tonight. High pressure from off the Carolina
coast will slide southward early next week setting up an east to
west ridge across the area. This will allow for generally light to
moderate east to southeast winds over the basin through Wed night.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening north and west of
the Yucatan Peninsula through the period as thermal troughs emerge
off the Peninsula to across SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from 20N72W to 19.5N76W. Isolated
showers are near the front and over Hispaniola. Dry air covers
most of the Caribbean. Cloudiness and isolated showers are
within 60 nm of the coast of South America, due to higher
moisture content to the south, as seen on TPW imagery. The
latest ASCAT pass shows fresh winds south of 13.5N between 61W-
78W, with a small area of strong winds near the coast of
Colombia. Moderate winds are elsewhere south of 14.5N. Winds are
10 kt or less over the northern Caribbean, north of 14.5N.

Winds over the basin will gradually increase through the
middle of next week as high pressure rebuilds over the
western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each night
beginning tonight over the Gulf of Honduras and especially
along the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A gale is forecast for the central Atlantic beginning tonight. See
Special Features section above.

A slow-moving cold front reaching from 32N43W to 29N51W to
23N62W to 20N71W is associated with a complex low well north of
the area off New England and the mid-Atlantic. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front, mainly north
of 29N and east of 50W. Recent scatterometer data indicate
strong W to NW winds north of 29N between 62W-76W, with fresh
winds elsewhere north of 27N between the cold front and 75W.
Fresh SW winds are within 210 nm SE of the cold front, mainly
north of 23N. N swell covers much of the central and western
Atlantic, to the east of the Bahamas. A 1018 mb high centered
near 23N43W is producing light to moderate winds in the 14N-24N
latitude band across the entire Atlantic and Caribbean. In the
far east Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from 32N15W through
the Canary Islands to 24N19W. The front is not producing any
significant weather.

The cold front extending from 23N62W to the Windward Passage
will slowly move eastward to the east of the Leeward Islands
near 18N62W by Mon morning. Gale conditions are expected near
31N65W this evening and tonight as a deep low pressure system
centered southeast of New England drops southeastward passing
just east of Bermuda Sun morning. North swell generated by the
low will produce very large seas across the waters east and
northeast of the Bahamas through the weekend. Seas will
gradually subside through early next week as the swell decays.
High pressure will shift southward between Bermuda and the
Bahamas Mon night into Tue. It will then shift southeastward
through Wed night as a cold front moves off the coast of Florida
into the west Atlantic. The front will be preceded by increasing
south to southwest winds and accompanied by scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

$$
Hagen
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