[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032305
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2304 UTC Fri Apr 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A gale is forecast to start over the central Atlantic on 05/1200
UTC. A cold front will produce gale force winds north of 30N
between 54W-56W with seas 16-18 ft. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the border of Sierra Leone
and Liberia near 06N07W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from
04N20W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02S-01N between 42W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf is maintaining
gentle winds across much of the eastern Gulf, with 1 to 3 ft
seas. Moderate easterly winds are noted elsewhere across the
Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft seas. No showers or thunderstorms are
evident across the Gulf at this time. Smoke from agricultural
fires in southern Mexico may be causing minor limitations to
visibility over the southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front will reach the Texas coast Sat,
then lift back north Sun. The front will trigger showers and
thunderstorms over the far northwest Gulf tonight through Sat
night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening north and
west of the Yucatan Peninsula through the period as thermal
troughs move to the northwest from the Peninsula over the Gulf.
Otherwise, A weak high pres ridge over the northeast Gulf will
generally support light to moderate E to SE winds over the basin
through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer satellite data shows moderate to fresh winds
off the coast of central Honduras and the Bay Islands. Moderate
to fresh winds are also likely off Colombia between Cartagena and
Barranquilla. Elsewhere, a relatively weak pressure pattern is in
place over the basin, supporting moderate trade winds. Seas are 2
to 4 ft in most area. Conditions remain fairly dry across the
region, and no significant shower activity is noted.

For the forecast, little change is expected through the early
part of the week. Winds over the basin will gradually increase
through the middle of next week as high pressure rebuilds over
the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each night
beginning Sat night over the Gulf of Honduras and especially
along the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A gale is forecast for the central Atlantic. See above.

A stationary front reaching from 32N45W to the Windward Passage
is associated with a complex low well north of the area off New
England. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer data
indicates mainly fresh W to NW winds north of 27N between 60W and
70W. Buoys also show seas 8 to 10 ft, primarily in NW swell over
this area and reaching farther south to 20N. A few showers are
noted along the stationary front north of 28N. The front will
begin moving slowly eastward by tonight and finally push to east
of the Leeward Islands near 18N62W by Mon morning. Gale
conditions are possible near 31N65W Sat evening the low pressure
off New England passes just east of Bermuda Sun morning. North
swell generated by the low will produce very large seas across
the waters east and northeast of the Bahamas through the
weekend. Seas will gradually subside through early next week as
the swell decays.

Farther east, weak 1016 mb high pressure centered near 22N43W is
maintaining light to gentle breezes from 15N-25N, with moderate
to fresh SW winds north of 25N ahead of the front. Fresh to
strong westerly winds follow a cold front moving into the Canary
Islands. Moderate trade winds are noted over the deep tropics. 8
to 10 ft seas are evident north of 20N, primarily in northerly
swell.

$$
Christensen
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