[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191826 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

CORRECTED THE FORECAST INFORMATION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO,
THE CARIBBEAN SEA, AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Humberto, at 19/1500 UTC, is near 36.8N
60.0W. This position also is about 360 nm/665 km to the
NE of Bermuda. Humberto is moving NE, or 050 degrees, 21 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 95 knots with gusts to 115 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 125
nm to 250 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Please, read the
latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

The center of Hurricane Jerry, at 19/1500 UTC, is near 16.8N
54.4W. This position also is about 425 nm/785 km to the east of
the Leeward Islands. Jerry is moving WNW, or 295 degrees, 14
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80
knots. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 120
nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere
from 15N to 22N between 48W and 60W. Please, read the latest NHC
public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

The center of Tropical Depression Imelda, at 19/1500 UTC, is
near 30.5N 95.5W, or about 50 nm/90 km to the N of Houston in
Texas, and also about 45 nm/85 km to the E of College Station in
Texas. Imelda is moving NW, or 320 degrees, 5 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots.
Numerous strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant. Historic and dangerous flooding is occurring in
SE Texas. Please, read the latest Weather Prediction Center
public advisory under WMO headers WTNT31 KWNH or
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W, from 15N
southward, moving W 15 knots. A surface trough is along 13N40W
09N38W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 06N to 15N between 38W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 knots. A 1008 mb low pressure center is
along the wave near 13N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are within 360 nm to the west of the tropical
wave, from 09N to 14N. Isolated moderate rainshowers also are
from 17N to 20N between Haiti and 81W.

A tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 17N southward, moving W 5
to 10 knots. The wave passes through eastern sections of
Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean.  Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 15N to
18N between 80W and Belize.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N21W 08N26W, 05N36W, and 11N46W.
Numerous strong rainshowers are from 14N to 16N between 16W and
18W along the coast of Africa. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 10N to 17N from 20W eastward to Africa. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 240
nm on either side of the monsoon trough, from 38W eastward, and
from 08N to 10N between 50W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Imelda is inland in Texas, near the Houston
metropolitan area. Numerous strong rainshowers are within 180 nm
of the center in the SE quadrant. Historic and dangerous
flooding is occurring in SE Texas.

A cold front cuts across Florida, from the southernmost parts of
the state, along the Florida west coast, northwestward, beyond
the Florida Big Bend and the Florida Panhandle. The dewpoint
temperatures in many locations in Florida have been measured in
the 60 degree Fahrenheit range during the day today. An upper
level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 27N76W,
across the western half of Cuba, into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, toward the Gulf of Honduras.

A surface trough is along 27N86W, 29N87W, 31N89W. An upper level
trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 27N76W, across the
western half of Cuba, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
toward the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
between 85W and 89W.

High pressure, that is centered in the Carolinas, will dominate
the Gulf of Mexico through Sunday. The pressure gradient will
tighten in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, from tonight through
Saturday night. This will result in fresh to strong easterly
winds and building seas to 8 feet.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 18N68W, about 45 nm to the
SE of the SE part of the Dominican Republic. Numerous strong
rainshowers are within 180 nm of the center in the W semicircle.

An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near
27N76W, across the western half of Cuba, into the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, toward the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 15N to 18N between 80W and Belize.

The monsoon trough passes through 09N/10N, from N sections of
Colombia beyond the southern sections of Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers
are in the central sections of Panama.

Hurricane Jerry near 16.8N 54.4W 988 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW
at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Jerry will
move to 17.5N 56.5W this evening, 18.5N 59.3W Fri morning, 19.5N
62.1W Fri evening, 20.7N 64.8W Sat morning. The center of Jerry
will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday,
pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and east of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. An elongated area of low
pressure associated with a tropical wave is located just south
of the Dominican Republic. Some slight development is still
possible before the system begins to interact with the high
terrain of Hispaniola. The disturbance is forecast to move
slowly northwestward through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N62W to 26N70W, to the Bahamas
near 24N77W, beyond the southernmost sections of mainland
Florida, toward the northwest. A surface trough is within 90 nm
to the east of the cold front, from Cuba northeastward. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 180
nm to the east of the cold front from 21N to 26N between 68W and
78W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere within 240 nm
to the east of the cold front.

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N20W to 28N29W and
28N33W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 28N33W, to
30N44W 27N52W and 23N56W. Little to no deep convective
precipitation is apparent with this frontal boundary.

Hurricane Humberto is forecast to become a powerful
extratropical cyclone well N of area later today. Large swells
generating by Humberto will continue to impact the forecast
waters E of the Bahamas through Sat. Meanwhile, Hurricane Jerry
near 16.8N 54.4W 988 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Jerry will move to
17.5N 56.5W this evening, 18.5N 59.3W Fri morning, 19.5N 62.1W
Fri evening, 20.7N 64.8W Sat morning, and weaken to a tropical
storm near 23.5N 68.6W Sun morning. Jerry will strengthen to a
hurricane again near 26.5N 70.0W early Mon, and change little in
intensity as it moves to near 30.5N 67.0W Tue. The center of
Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands
Friday, pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and east of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

$$
mt
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