[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Humberto, at 19/1500 UTC, is near 36.8N
60.0W. This position also is about 360 nm/665 km to the
NE of Bermuda. Humberto is moving NE, or 050 degrees, 21 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 95 knots with gusts to 115 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 125
nm to 250 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Please, read the
latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

The center of Hurricane Jerry, at 19/1500 UTC, is near 16.8N
54.4W. This position also is about 425 nm/785 km to the east of
the Leeward Islands. Jerry is moving WNW, or 295 degrees, 14
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80
knots. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 120
nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere
from 15N to 22N between 48W and 60W. Please, read the latest NHC
public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

The center of Tropical Depression Imelda, at 19/1500 UTC, is
near 30.5N 95.5W, or about 50 nm/90 km to the N of Houston in
Texas, and also about 45 nm/85 km to the E of College Station in
Texas. Imelda is moving NW, or 320 degrees, 5 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots.
Numerous strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant. Flooding is occurring in SE Texas. Please, read
the latest Weather Prediction Center public advisory under WMO
headers WTNT31 KWNH or www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W, from 15N
southward, moving W 15 knots. A surface trough is along 13N40W
09N38W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 06N to 15N between 38W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 knots. A 1008 mb low pressure center is
along the wave near 13N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are within 360 nm to the west of the tropical
wave, from 09N to 14N. Isolated moderate rainshowers also are
from 17N to 20N between Haiti and 81W.

A tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 17N southward, moving W 5
to 10 knots. The wave passes through eastern sections of
Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean.  Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 15N to
18N between 80W and Belize.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N21W 08N26W, 05N36W, and 11N46W.
Numerous strong rainshowers are from 14N to 16N between 16W and
18W along the coast of Africa. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 10N to 17N from 20W eastward to Africa. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 240
nm on either side of the monsoon trough, from 38W eastward, and
from 08N to 10N between 50W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Imelda is inland in Texas, near the Houston
metropolitan area. Numerous strong rainshowers are within 180 nm
of the center in the SE quadrant.

A surface trough is analyzed in the eastern Gulf from 26N84W to
the western Florida Panhandle near 30N87W. Scattered thunderstorms
are along this trough from 25N-30N between 85W-87W. Otherwise,
ridging dominates the rest of the basin with a 1014 mb high
analyzed near 28N88W. The latest scatterometer data depicts light
to gentle winds across most of the basin with moderate
northeasterly winds in the SE Gulf and moderate southerly winds in
the NW Gulf.

High pressure over the north central Gulf will dissipate today as
a weak cold front moves across the eastern Gulf, then stall over
the southeast Gulf by late Friday, before dissipating Saturday
into Sunday. High pressure will persist in the wake of the front
from the Carolinas to Texas into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 18N68W, about 45 nm to the
SE of the SE part of the Dominican Republic. Numerous strong
rainshowers are within 180 nm of the center in the W semicircle.

The monsoon trough passes through 09N/10N, from N sections of
Colombia beyond the southern sections of Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers
are in the central sections of Panama.

Scattered thunderstorms are noted near the SE Cuban coast moving
into adjacent waters in addition to the Gulf of Honduras. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is seen in the SW basin, S of 13N
between 73W-79W. Scattered showers continue over and south of
Puerto Rico with the rest of the eastern Caribbean remaining dry.
Radar and satellite indicates that a 1008 mb low is located in the
Mona Passage near 18N68W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light
to gentle winds across the basin.

A few showers and thunderstorms will persist over the eastern
Caribbean over the next couple of days, east of weak low pressure
over the central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
Tropical Storm Jerry.

A cold front is currently sweeping across the western and central
Atlantic in the wake of Hurricane Humberto. The cold front
extends from 32N64W to 26N74W to South Florida near 26N80W.
Showers are seen along the front, mainly in the central Atlantic.
A trough is analyzed near the central Atlantic from 19N58W to
26N57W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are near this feature,
from 23N-29N between 54W-57W. Another cold front enters the
discussion area in the eastern Atlantic near 31N20W and stretches
westward to 28N33W. The front stalls near 28N33W and extends
southwestward to 29N45W to 24N54W. Light showers are along the
boundary. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE
winds in the western Atlantic.

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the wake of the trough
associated with Humberto, and ahead of any potential impacts from
Jerry.


$$
AKR
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