[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, at 09/2100 UTC, is near
40.7N 45.4W, moving NE at 20 knots. It is located about 860
nautical miles WNW of the Azores. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45
knots with gusts to 55 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 40N-46N between 42W-48W. Gabrielle will continue to move
NE with an increase in forward speed is forecast over the next
couple of days. Little change in strength is expected tonight, but a
weakening trend is likely to begin Tuesday.  Gabrielle is expected
to become an extratropical low by Tuesday night and dissipate over
the far North Atlantic Thursday. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC,
or the website hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W S of 19N, moving W at
10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-18N
between 18W-21W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W S of 20N, moving W at
15 knots. A 1012 mb low is located along the wave near 14N46W.
This system continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next two or three days before upper-level winds become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. It is expected to
move generally westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the
next several days. This system has a 20 percent chance of
formation through the next 48 hours.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W S of 17N, moving W at
15 knots. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave
axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W S of 18N, moving W at 10
knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 50 nm
of the wave axis from 10N-19N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W S of 21N, moving W at 10
knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted near the
wave, especially in Honduras and Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is also occurring in the northern portion of the
wave axis in the Yucatan.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 12N35W to 14N45W. The ITCZ begins near 12N48W to 10N59W. Aside
from the convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is present around 200 nm south of the monsoon
trough from 08N-15N between 25W-45W. Another area of scattered
moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 07N- 12N between
48W- 55W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper and mid level cyclonic circulation center is meandering
into Texas. However, scattered moderate convection can be seen
from 22N-26N between 91W-96W. A trough extends along this
convection from 18N95W to 24N90W. Another trough is analyzed from
28N94W to 29N91W. An area of numerous strong convection is moving
off the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche from 20N-22N and E of
91W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds
across the basin.

High pressure ridging will prevail just N of the basin through
the week. The ridging will maintain gentle to moderate easterly
flow, except pulsing to fresh NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate convection continues over the Greater Antilles
from the Mona Passage to the Dominican Republic and across
southern Cuba. Some of this activity is moving into adjacent
waters. Numerous strong convection is occurring over Colombia due
to the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, with some of these storms
also moving into adjacent waters. Isolated thunderstorms are also
seen across the Lesser Antilles. The upper level ridge will
continue to suppress any deep convection across the eastern
portion of the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate
trades in the south- central Caribbean with light to gentle
trades elsewhere.

High pressure ridging will prevail N-NE of the basin through the
week. The ridging will maintain moderate trades, except pulsing to
fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean. A strong tropical
wave may approach the tropical N Atlantic by the end of the
upcoming weekend with gusty winds and squalls.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An upper level trough is moving over the western Atlantic and
extending into the Caribbean near the Windward Passage. A surface
trough is noted from 20N70W to 24N66W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 20N-26N between 65W-74W. Little-to-no
development of this system is expected during the next day or two
while it moves west-northwestward near the southeastern Bahamas.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development when the disturbance moves near the northwestern
Bahamas, south Florida and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
late this week.

A another surface trough extends south from T.S. Gabrielle,
entering the forecast waters near 31N54W and extends westward to
29N65W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 70 nm of
this feature. An upper level low over the central Atlantic is
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 21N-26N between
51W-56W. A 1021 mb high is analyzed near 27N53W and is ridging
across the eastern Atlantic.

The trough NW-N of Puerto Rico will track WNW across the area
during the week reaching Florida late in the week. It will be
accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure across the area will
gradually lift northward through the week.

$$
AKR
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