[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, at 09/1500 UTC, is near
39.0N 47.3W, moving NE at 15 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45
knots with gusts to 55 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection are from 38N-41N between 46W-49W. Please read the
latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or the website hurricanes.gov, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W, from 19N southward,
moving W 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted along the coast of Guinea, Guinea Bissau and Senegal,
from 10N to 15N between 16W-20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W, from 19N southward,
moving W 20 knots. Area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward
Islands is associated to this wave and the proximity of the
monsoon trough. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is mainly to the west of the wave, from 11N-15N between 42W-46W.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next
two or three days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to move
generally westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next
several days. This area of disorganized showers has a 20 percent
chance of formation through the next 48 hours.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W, from 13N southward,
moving W 10 knots. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of
the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W, from 18N southward,
moving W 10 knots. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of
the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 20N southward,
moving W 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
the wave, especially in the coast of Costa Rica, Nicaragua and
Honduras. A few showers are also noted north of 19N between the
Cayman Island and the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 13N16W,
to 13N42W to 10N54W. Aside from the convection associated to the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is present around
300 nm south of the monsoon trough from 06N-12N between 30W-39W.
Another area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-
11N between 47W- 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper and mid level cyclonic circulation center is along the
coast of South Texas. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of MX,
from 21N-29N between 90W-97W. At the surface a trough extends
from the Bay of Campeche to Central Gulf of Mexico, 19N94W to
24N90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 19N94W to 25N92W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
seen near the coast of Louisiana and west Gulf coast of S Florida.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds span the Gulf of Mexico.

A trough moving off the western Yucatan peninsula will allow fresh
to strong winds in that area overnight. Elsewhere weak ridging
extending from off the Carolina coast through the lower Mississippi
Valley will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight
seas through Tue. Winds will increase slightly over the southeast
Gulf by mid week ahead of a trough moving through the Bahamas and
South Florida through late week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate convection is seen over the Greater Antilles
from the Mona Passage to the Dominican Republic and Cuba. Some of
this activity is moving into adjacent waters. Scattered tstorms
are also seen across NW Caribbean Sea near the two tropical waves
in the region. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean with light to gentle
trades elsewhere.

High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate trades,
except pulsing to fresh to strong speeds in the south- central
Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia beginning this evening.
A pair of tropical waves over the western Caribbean will move
west of the region by mid week. Another tropical wave approaching
Barbados will move across the eastern Caribbean through mid week
and the central Caribbean Thu and into the southwest Caribbean
Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An upper level trough passes through 31N52W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 23N57W, to an upper level cyclonic circulation center
that is in the Caribbean Sea about 60 nm centered over Puerto
Rico. A surface trough is along 23N66W to 19N65W. This trough
is interacting with the upper level low producing an area of
disorganized showers and tstorms west of 66W from 20N-24N.
Little to no development of this system is expected during the
next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward, north
of the Greater Antilles. Environmental conditions could become a
little more conducive for development when the disturbance moves
near the Bahamas and Florida late this week.

A surface to low-level trough north of Puerto Rico will track WNW
across the area during the week reaching the Florida late in the
week. It will be accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure across the
area will gradually lift northward through the week.

$$
MMTorres
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