[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 03/1200 UTC, is located near
27.1N 78.4W, about 35 nm NE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island and is
moving NW at 1 kt. Dorian has an estimated central pressure of
952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130
kt. Dorian is a Category 3 hurricane. Dorian is expected to remain
a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Numerous
strong convection is within 75 nm of the center. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 23N-30N
between 75W-80W. A slow north-northwestward motion is expected to
begin this morning. A turn to the north is forecast by Wednesday
evening, followed by a turn to the north-northeast Thursday
morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island today. The
hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east
coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near
or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
or the website hurricanes.gov for more details.

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven, at 03/1200 UTC,
is located near 23.5N 94.6W or about 195 nm ENE of Tampico
Mexico, moving W at 6 kt. The estimated central pressure is 1004
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 22N-28N between
90W-99W. The system is likely to become a tropical later today and
a tropical storm by tonight. The system should continue moving W
with a WNW motion on Wed. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
for the coast of Mexico from La Pesca to Barra El Mezquital.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast by Wed
evening. Heavy rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides across portions of northeastern Mexico. See the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC or the website www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A 1007 mb low is embedded on a tropical wave near 17N31W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 12N-19N between 27W-33W. A
tropical depression is expected to form later today while the
system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during
the next 48 hours is high.

A surface trough is located several hundred nm south of Bermuda
from 30N63W to 25N68W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-
30N between 60W-67W. Some gradual development of the disturbance
is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
northward, and a tropical depression could form by Thursday.
Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less
favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda
should monitor the progress of this disturbance, and areas of
heavy rainfall are likely. The chance of a tropical cyclone to
develop during the next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical is along 31W from 08N-21N, moving W at 10
kt. Refer to the Special Features section above for details.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W from 04N-14N, moving W at
15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N
between 46W-53W.

A central Caribbean wave is along 74W from 08N-20N, moving W at
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Haiti, NW
Venezuela, and N Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 17N31W to 08N49W. The ITCZ extends from 08N53W to the coast of
Guyana near 07N58W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is along the
coast of W Africa from 14N-17N between 20W-22W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is also over the Atlantic from 08N-12N
between 58W-61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven centered over the western Gulf
of Mexico.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across most of
the basin, with locally fresh winds near Potential Tropical
Cyclone Seven.

Elsewhere, a feeder band from Hurricane Dorian has scattered
moderate convection over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida
from 23N- 25N between 80W-83W.

Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over
Georgia and the Carolinas, and this trough is expected to cause
Dorian to begin moving to the NNW later today. Strong subsidence
is also over the NE Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
currently across the central Caribbean.

Isolated moderate convection is over the Windward Islands from
10N-15N between 60W-64W. Similar convection is along the coast of
E Cuba from 19N-22N between 74W-76W. Scattered moderate
convection is inland over Belize. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate trades across the central Caribbean with light
to gentle trades across the rest of the basin.

Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered
over W Honduras near 15N86W enhancing showers over the western
Gulf of Honduras.

The tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the
western Caribbean Wed and exit west of the Caribbean Fri night.
Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and
central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over
the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian,
Special Features, and tropical waves.

A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N40W to
28N48W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Surface
ridging prevails across the rest of the basin.

$$
Formosa/Hagen
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