[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 03/0900 UTC, is located near
26.9N 78.4W about 30 nm NE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island.
Dorian has an estimated central pressure of 950 mb and is
currently stationary. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with
gusts to 130 kt. Dorian is a Category 3 hurricane. Dorian is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of
days. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the center.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from
23N-30N between 75W-80W. A slow north-northwestward motion is
expected to begin this morning. A turn to the north is forecast by
Wednesday evening, followed by a turn to the north-northeast
Thursday morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous
Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island today.
The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida
east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the
Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday,
and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday. See the
latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. Also, use the URL
www.hurricanes.gov.

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven, at 03/0900 UTC, is
located near 23.5N 94.3W or about 212 nm ENE of Tampico Mexico,
moving W at 6 kt. The estimated central pressure is 1006 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 19N-28N between
90W-99W. The system is likely to become a tropical depression or
a tropical storm later today or tonight. Interests along the
northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.

A 1007 mb low is embedded on a tropical wave near 17N31W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 12N-19N between 27W-33W. A
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of a tropical cyclone to
develop during the next 48 hours is high.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical is along 31W from 08N-21N, moving W at 10
kt. Refer to the Special Features section above for details.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W from 04N-14N, moving W at
15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N
between 46W-53W.

A central Caribbean wave is along 74W from 08N-20N, moving W at
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Haiti, NW
Venezuela, and N Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 17N31W to 08N49W. The ITCZ extends from 08N53W to the coast of
Guyana near 07N58W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is along the
coast of W Africa from 14N-17N between 20W-22W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is also over the Atlantic from 08N-12N
between 58W-61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven centered over the western Gulf
of Mexico.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across most of
the basin, with locally fresh winds near Potential Tropical
Cyclone Seven.

The system will move to 23.4N 95.2W this afternoon, and is expected
strengthen to a tropical storm near 23.4N 96.3W Wed morning,
23.7N 97.1W Wed afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical
depression near 24.3N 98.2W Thu morning, and dissipate Fri
morning.

Elsewhere, a feeder band from Hurricane Dorian has scattered
moderate convection over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida
from 23N- 25N between 80W- 83W.

Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over
Georgia and the Carolinas influencing the track of Hurricane
Dorian. Strong subsidence is also over the NE Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
currently across the central Caribbean.

Isolated moderate convection is over the Windward Islands from
10N-15N between 60W-64W. Similar convection is along the coast of
E Cuba from 19N-22N between 74W-76W. Scattered moderate
convection is inland over Belize. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate trades across the central Caribbean with light
to gentle trades across the rest of the basin.

Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered
over W Honduras near 15N86W enhancing convection.

The tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the
western Caribbean Wed and exit west of the Caribbean Fri night.
Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and
central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over
the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian,
Special Features, and tropical waves.

A surface trough is located several hundred miles south-southeast
of Bermuda from 30N63W to 25N68W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 25N-30N between 60W-67W. Some gradual development of the
disturbance is possible during the next couple of days. Afterward,
upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for
tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor
the progress of this disturbance. The chance of a tropical cyclone
to develop during the next 48 hours is low. Over the central
Atlantic, a surface trough is over the central Atlantic from
31N40W to 28N48W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
trough. Surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin.

Hurricane Dorian is located near 26.9N 78.4W 950 mb at 5 AM EDT
and is nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt
gusts 130 kt. Dorian will move to 27.5N 78.8W this afternoon,
28.5N 79.3W Wed morning, 29.9N 79.7W Wed afternoon, 31.4N 79.4W
Thu morning, and 34.3N 76.6W Fri morning. Dorian will slowly
weaken as it moves parallel and well offshore the eastern United
States coast Sat, and become extratropical as it moves east of
Canada Sun.

$$
Formosa
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