[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun Sep 1 06:20:41 CDT 2019

AXNT20 KNHC 011120
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 01/0600 UTC, is near 26.3N
75.6W. This position is about 80 nm/150 km to the east of Great
Abaco Island in the Bahamas, and about 245 nm/450 km to the east
of West Palm Beach in Florida. Dorian is moving W, or 280
degrees, 7 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 130
knots with gusts to 160 knots. Dorian is a Category 4 hurricane.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb. Numerous
strong rainshowers are within 90 nm of the center in the E
semicircle, and within 60 nm of the center in the W semicircle.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere
from 21N to 30N between 70W and 78W. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for
DORIAN are available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the
AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for DORIAN are
available via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT5. The URL for more information is
www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is moving through the Cabo Verde
Islands, along 25W, from 20N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, in clusters,
are from 10N to 16N between 23W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from 16N
southward, moving W 20 knots. Monsoon trough related rainshowers
are from 10N to 14N between 40W and 44W.

A tropical wave is along 21N61W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 15N63W
in the Caribbean Sea, to NE Venezuela near 10N64W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 20N between 57W and 65W.

A tropical wave is along 85W, from 15N southward, moving W 10 to
15 knots. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W, to 12N30W and to 10N48W. The ITCZ is along 10N48W 10N54W
12N58W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in
the coastal plains of Africa from 04N to 20N. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on
either side of the line that runs from 08N28W to 10N34W 12N42W
13N47W 17N54W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from
11N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 27N88W, to a 1010 mb low pressure
center that is just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula near
23N87W, southeastward into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
near 19N85W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 94W eastward.
Isolated moderate rainshowers also are along the Mexico coast,
from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico toward the Deep South
of Texas.

Low pressure, just N of the Yucatan Peninsula, will move slowly
W across the western Gulf of Mexico through mid week. Category 4
Hurricane Dorian is in the Atlantic Ocean, near 26.4N 76.0W,
moving W 7 knots, and maximum sustained winds 130 knots with
gusts to 160 knots. Dorian will move through the northern
Bahamas through early Monday. Dorian will turn NW, then NNW, in
order to parallel the east coasts of Florida and Georgia through
mid week. Tropical storm force winds will stay mainly to the
east of the far eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
including the Florida Big Bend area, from Monday night through
Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 27N88W, to a 1010 mb low pressure
center that is just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula near
23N87W, southeastward into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
near 19N85W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 14N northward from Jamaica westward.

The monsoon trough passes through 08N/09N between 73W in
Colombia beyond 83W, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
Colombia and the Lake Maracaibo area of NW Venezuela, from 06N
to 10N. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N southward
from 75W westward.

Category 4 Hurricane Dorian is moving slowly W across the
Atlantic Ocean, in the open waters that are just E of the
northern Bahamas. A tropical wave, in the far eastern Caribbean
Sea, will reach the central Caribbean Sea by Monday night, and
the western Caribbean Sea by Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds
are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with
gentle to moderate winds prevailing in the NW Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is within 60 nm of the coasts of South
Carolina and Georgia. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the
north of the line that runs from 31N81W at the coast, beyond
32N75W.

Broad middle level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
from 20N northward between 50W and 60W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 20N to 30N
between 50W and 70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 30N
to 33N between 56W and 63W.

A cold front passes through 32N42W to 31N41W to 31N53W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 30N northward
between 36W and 54W.

An upper level trough extends from a Madeira Archipelago
cyclonic circulation center, to a second cyclonic center that is
near 30N31W, to a third cyclonic circulation center that is near
24N41W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence surrounds the
trough.

Category 4 Hurricane Dorian near 26.4N 76.0W 934 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving W at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt.
Dorian will move to 26.6N 77.1W this afternoon, 26.7N 78.1W Mon
morning, 26.9N 78.7W Mon afternoon, 27.0N 79.0W Tue morning, and
27.6N 79.4W Wed morning. Dorian will weaken slightly in
intensity as it moves to the 28.9N 79.8W early Thu, and continue
to near 31.8N 79.6W early Fri.

$$
MT
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