[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
157 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 01/0600 UTC, is near 26.3N
75.6W. This position is about 80 nm/150 km to the east of Great
Abaco Island in the Bahamas, and about 245 nm/450 km to the east
of West Palm Beach in Florida. Dorian is moving W, or 280
degrees, 7 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 130
knots with gusts to 160 knots. Dorian is a Category 4 hurricane.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb. Numerous strong
rainshowers are within 90 nm of the center in the E semicircle,
and within 60 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 24N to
29N between 72W and 77W. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for DORIAN are
available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for DORIAN are available
via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header
MIATCMAT5. The URL for more information is www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is moving through the Cabo Verde
Islands, along 24W/25W, from 20N southward, moving W 15 to 20
knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated rainshowers are
from 10N to 16N between 22W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W, from 16N
southward, moving W 20 knots. Monsoon trough related rainshowers
are from 11N to 13N between 37W and 41W.

A tropical wave is along 21N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
Guadeloupe, to NE Venezuela near 10N63W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 10N to 20N between 56W and 64W.

A tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 15N southward, moving W 10
to 15 knots. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W, to 12N30W and to 10N47W. The ITCZ is along 10N49W 10N56W
11N61W near Trinidad. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are within 120 nm to 240 nm on either side of the line
that runs from 10N14W to 10N24W 11N34W 13N40W 13N47W 17N52W, and
from 05N to 12N between 30W and 62W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 27N90W, to a 1009 mb low pressure
center that is just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula near
23N87W, southeastward into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
near 19N84W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 93W eastward.

Low pressure, just N of the Yucatan Peninsula, will move slowly
W across the western Gulf of Mexico through mid week. Major Hurricane
Dorian is in the Atlantic Ocean, near 26.3N 75.1W, moving W 7
knots, and maximum sustained winds 130 knots with gusts to 160
knots. Dorian will move through the northern Bahamas through early
Monday. Dorian will turn NW, then NNW, in order to parallel the
east coasts of Florida and Georgia through mid week. Tropical
storm force winds will be possible in the Big Bend area of Florida
in the far NE Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 27N90W, to a 1009 mb low pressure
center that is just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula near
23N87W, southeastward into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
near 19N84W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N northward
from Jamaica westward.

The monsoon trough passes through 10N73W in Colombia, through
eastern Panama, southern Panama near 08N81W, beyond 08N84W in the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers
are in Colombia, from 05N northward between 73W and 76W, and in
NW Venezuela between the southern part of Lake Maracaibo and the
border with Colombia. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 12N southward from 75W westward.

Major Hurricane Dorian is moving slowly W across the Atlantic
Ocean, in open waters just E of the northern Bahamas. A tropical
wave, currently entering the far eastern Caribbean Sea, will reach
the central Caribbean Sea by Monday night, and the western
Caribbean Sea by Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds are expected
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with gentle to
moderate winds prevailing in the NW Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is within 60 nm of the coasts of South Carolina
and Georgia. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the north of the
line that runs from 31N81W at the coast, beyond 32N75W.

Broad middle level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between 50W and 60W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 20N to 30N between 50W and
70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 30N to 33N between
56W and 63W.

A cold front passes through 32N43W to 31N48W to 32N53W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 30N northward
between 37W and 54W.

An upper level trough extends from a Madeira Archipelago cyclonic
circulation center, to a second cyclonic center that is near
30N31W, to a third cyclonic circulation center that is near
24N41W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence surrounds the
trough.

Major Hurricane Dorian, near 26.3N 75.1W, 940 mb at 11 PM EDT,
moving WNW 7 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 130
knots with gusts to 160 knots. Dorian will move to 26.4N 76.3W
on Sunday morning, to 26.6N 77.4W on Sunday evening, and to the
NW Bahamas near 26.8N 78.1W on Monday morning. Dorian will turn
NW and slowly move away from the NW Bahamas as an extremely
dangerous hurricane, reaching 27.0N 78.5W on Monday evening, and
continue to 27.5N 78.8W on Tuesday evening off the east coast of
central Florida. Dorian will begin weakening slowly, as it moves
NNW, paralleling the east coasts of Florida and Georgia through
the middle of the week.

$$
MT
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