[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Tropical Storm Pablo in the far Northeastern Atlantic...

Tropical Storm Pablo is centered near 40.7N 20.0W at 27/0900 UTC,
or about 300 nm NE of Sao Miguel Island in the Azores, moving NE
at 35 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 kt with gusts to 75
kt, and minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Scattered moderate
convection is present within 60 nm of the center in the N
semicircle and 45 nm S semicircle. A decrease in forward speed is
expected through this morning. A turn toward the north-northeast
and north is forecast this afternoon and tonight, followed by a
turn toward the northwest on Monday. Slow weakening is forecast to
begin this afternoon, and Pablo is expected to become post-
tropical tonight or early Monday. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 32W from
19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection prevails from 02N-10N between 22W-39W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 53W from
16N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well-depicted
in satellite imagery. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is
from 10N-13N between 49W-54W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 65W south
of 20N, moving W around 15 kt. The wave continues to be very weak
and difficult to track. The wave has had no convection at all for
the past 3 days.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 85W from
10N-24N, moving W around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
from 11N-23N between 75W-89W. This activity is being enhanced by
an upper-level low over the W Caribbean near 16N85W. The northern
part of this wave is forecast to move NW toward the central Gulf
of Mexico on Monday, enhancing showers.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of The Gambia near
13N17W to 07N25W to 07N38W to 10N45W. The ITCZ extends from 10N45W
to 10N50W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical
waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N-10N between 15W-17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 27/0900 UTC, a cold front stretches from 31N84W to 27N86W,
then continues as a stationary front to 22N90W to 18N93W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is in the SE Bay
of Campeche from 17N-20N between 91W-94W. Scattered moderate
convection is along and within 45 nm ahead of the cold front from
28N-31N. Isolated moderate convection is near the stationary front
from 21N-23N. A 1015 mb surface high is over the western Gulf of
Mexico near 24N96W. Gentle winds are over the W Gulf west of 90W
and north of 22.5N. Fresh to strong N winds are in the
southeastern Bay of Campeche just NW of the stationary front,
according to the ASCAT pass from late Saturday evening. Elsewhere,
isolated showers are west of South Florida and the Florida Keys.
A tropical wave in the NW Caribbean is spreading cloudiness and
showers into the Yucatan Channel.

The cold front from 31N84W to 27N86W will become stationary
today. The front will weaken today and dissipate Monday as it
lifts some northward. Another strong cold front is expected to
move into the NW Gulf Wed night followed by strong northerly
winds, with the possibility of these winds reaching gale force
late Wed night into Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the Caribbean Sea. An upper-level low near 16N85W
is enhancing the convection described above in the Tropical Waves
section. Isolated moderate to strong convection is also seen over
the far SW Caribbean in association with the East Pacific monsoon
trough, mainly south of 12N and west of 71W, including over N
Colombia and NW Venezuela. Dry conditions cover the east Caribbean
east of 72W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the
south-central Caribbean and fresh SE winds to the west of Jamaica,
with moderate winds elsewhere, but gentle in the far SW Caribbean.

Moderate trades are expected across most of the Caribbean through
Thu night. Winds over the central Caribbean will be fresh but
locally strong along the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through
Tue. A tropical wave over the far western Caribbean will lift NW
into the SE Gulf of Mexico today. Large long-period northeast
swell affecting the Leeward Islands will begin to slowly subside
Tue. A reinforcing batch of northeast swell will propagate
through the northern and central tropical north Atlantic waters
late Tue through Wed night. The swell will not really abate much
in between these two events.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about T.S. Pablo and the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

Deep-layered ridging covers the western Atlantic north of 20N
between 50W-79W. A 1021 mb surface high is near 29N61W. Some
isolated moderate convection is seen from 22N-25N between 77W-80W,
including the western portion of the Old Bahamas Chanel. Farther
E, a cold front extends from 32N21W to 28N24W, then continues as a
stationary front to 18N39W. A shear line continues from 18N39W to
16N47W to 20N59W. Isolated moderate convection is from 26N-31N
between 15W-22W. Another area where scattered showers are seen is
north of 28N between 31W-47W due to upper-level diffluence in the
area.

Large long-period N swell of 8-10 ft are currently affecting
waters from 15N-32N between 25W-63W. Long period NE swell up to 6
ft will affect Atlantic waters between 65W-70W today through
early Monday. The swells will subside somewhat on Tuesday, but the
large NE swells will return late Wed into Thu due to another
strong, large low pressure system north of the forecast area over
the north-central Atlantic.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds across the western Atlantic
through Wed night. A weak cold front will move over the far
northwest waters Mon, then lift back as a warm front Tue night.

$$
Hagen
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