[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Tropical Storm Pablo now accelerating away from the Azores...

Tropical Storm Pablo is centered near 38.2N 22.6W at 27/0300 UTC,
or about 125 nm ENE of Sao Miguel Island in the Azores, moving NE
at 25 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 55 kt with gusts to 65
kt, and minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is present within 90 nm of the center in the N
semicircle and 60 nm S semicircle. A turn toward the north-
northeast and north is expected today, followed by a turn toward
the northwest on Monday. The small core of Pablo will continue to
move away from the eastern Azores early this morning. Little
change in strength is expected this morning, but slow weakening
is forecast to begin by tonight. Pablo is forecast to become
post-tropical tonight or early Monday. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W from
19N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection prevails from 03N-10N between 25W-37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W from
16N southward, moving W around 10 kt. This wave is well-depicted
in satellite imagery. Scattered showers are from 10N-13N between
48W-53W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 64/65W south
of 19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave continues to be very weak
and difficult to track. The wave has had no convection at all for
the past 2 to 3 days.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 85W from
08N-23N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is east of the wave axis from 12N-22N between
77W-81W. This activity is being enhanced by an upper-level low
over the W Caribbean near 16N85W. Isolated moderate convection is
over NW Nicaragua, S Honduras and E El Salvador.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 09N22W to 06N31W to 07N38W to 09N43W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N43W to 10N50W. Aside from the convection related
to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate
convection is noted within 180 nm of the African coast from 06N-
11N, and within 180 nm of the monsoon trough between 38W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 27/0300 UTC, a cold front stretches from 31N86W to 27N86W to
25N87W, and continues as a stationary front to 21N90W to 18N93W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm
of the stationary front from 17N-22N between 89W-93W. Surface high
pressure is building in over the western Gulf of Mexico. Gentle
winds are over the W Gulf west of 90W and north of 22.5N. Fresh to
strong N winds are in the southeastern Bay of Campeche just NW of
the stationary front. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is
seen over South Florida and the Florida Keys. A tropical wave in
the NW Caribbean is spreading cloudiness and light showers into
the Yucatan Channel.

The Gulf of Mexico cold front will become stationary today. The
stationary front will dissipate Monday as it lifts some
northward. Another strong cold front is expected to move into the
NW Gulf Wed night followed by strong northerly winds, with the
possibility of these winds reaching gale force late Wed night into
Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the Caribbean Sea. An upper-level low near 16N85W
is enhancing the convection described above in the Tropical Waves
section. Isolated moderate to strong convection is also seen over
N Colombia. Dry conditions cover the east Caribbean east of 72W.
Latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the south-central
Caribbean and fresh SE winds to the west of Jamaica, with moderate
winds elsewhere, but gentle in the far SW Caribbean.

Moderate trades are expected across most of the Caribbean through
Wed night. Large long-period northeast swell will reach the
Leeward Islands early this morning, then begin to slowly subside
by Tue. Yet another batch of northeast swell will propagate
through the northern and central tropical north Atlantic waters
late Tue through Wed night. The swell will not really abate much
in between these two events.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about T.S. Pablo and the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

Deep-layered ridging covers the western Atlantic north of 20N
between 50W and Florida. A 1021 mb surface high is near 28N60W.
Some isolated moderate convection is seen near South Florida and
the Florida Keys as well as from 27N-31N between 77W-79W. Farther
E, a cold front extends from 32N21N to 24N27W to 20N33W to
17N41W. A shear line continues from 17N41W to 16N48W to 18N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm SE of the cold
front to the east of 23W. Isolated showers are near the remainder
of the cold front and shear line. Another area where scattered
showers are seen is north of 27.5N between 34W-44W due to upper-
level diffluence in the area.

Large long-period N swell of 8-10 ft are currently affecting
waters from 17N-32N between 26W-60W. Long period NE swell up to 6
ft will affect Atlantic waters between 65W-70W today through early
Monday. The swells will subside somewhat on Tuesday, but the
large NE swells will return late Wed into Thu due to another
strong, large low pressure system north of the forecast area over
the north-central Atlantic.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds across the western Atlantic
through Wed night. A weak cold front will move over the far
northwest waters Monday, then lift back as a warm front Tuesday
night.

$$
Hagen
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