[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 12000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Tropical Storm Pablo to pass near or over the Azores Tonight...

As of 26/1500 UTC, Tropical Storm Pablo is centered near 35.2N
28.1W or 205 nm SSW of the Azores moving E at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A turn toward the northeast with an
increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast and north on Sunday. On the
forecast track, the small core of Pablo will pass near or over the
eastern Azores tonight. Pablo is expected to become extratropical
on Sunday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from
19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well-defined in
satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery, and model
diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-10N between
25W-30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 49W from
14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted
in satellite imagery. Isolated showers are within 130 nm of the
wave axis from 08N-13N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is analyzed along 61W south of 18N,
moving W around 15 kt, but the wave has become very weak and
difficult to track. The wave is in a dry environment and no
convection is present in the wave's area at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 82W from
23N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is from 14N-20N between 78W-83W. This activity is being enhanced
by an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean that is to the west of
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 05N25W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 07N46W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described
above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
within 220 nm S and 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 30W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front stretches from southern Louisiana from 29N89W
to north of the Yucantan Peninsula near 22N91W, then transition to
a stationary front at that point to the Bay of Campeche to 18N92W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen along the
station front from 18N-22N between 90W-95W and along the cold
front near the offshore waters of the Florida Panhandle near
27N30N between 85W-87W. Scattered showers are also seen near the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula.

Strong northwest to north winds west of the front will diminish
to mainly fresh speeds by this evening as the cold front begins to
weakens while reaching from near Panama City, Florida to 25N89W
and to along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The cold
front will continue to weaken as it reaches from Apalachee Bay to
near 25N87W and to inland the western part of the Yucatan
Peninsula Sun morning, then become stationary through Mon evening.
It will then lift back to the N as a warm front Mon through Tue
evening. High pressure will build west- southwest across the area
Mon night through Wed night. Another strong cold front is expected
to move into the NW Gulf Wed night followed by strong winds
northerly, with the possibility of these winds reaching gale force
late Wed night into Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave along
80W.

An upper-level low is centered over the NW Caribbean near 16N84W
enhancing the convection near and east of the tropical wave.
Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trades over the central
Caribbean between 66W-76W with moderate winds elsewhere.

Moderate trades are expected across most of the Caribbean through
Wed night. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean will move
inland Central America on Sun. A second tropical wave just west of
the Lesser Antilles will move across the rest of the eastern
Caribbean through Sun evening, then across the central Caribbean
through Tue evening and the western Caribbean Wed through Thu.
Large long-period northeast swell will reach the Leeward Islands
early Sun, then begin to slowly subside through Tue. Yet another
batch of northeast swell will propagate through the northern and
central tropical north Atlantic waters late Tue through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about T.S. Pablo and the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

An area of high precipitable water content extends across the Old
Bahama Channel. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen
near the coast of Florida from 26N-28N between 78W-80W. To the
east, a cold front extends from 30N25W to 23N36W, then continues
as a stationary front to 21N44W. Latest ASCAT continue to depict
a northwesterly flow behind the front with moderate to fresh
winds. A surface trough extends 200 nm southeast of the front
from 25N27W to 17N42W, then transitions to a shear line at that
point to 22N65W. The shear line is noticiable in the visible
sat and ASCAT pass this morning with a 20 to 25 kt NE wind to the
NE and light 5 to 10 kt S of the line. Scattered showers are seen
along the boundary.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds across the region through Wed
night. Large long-period northeast swell will build seas over the
southeastern part of the area E of 70W Sun through early Mon. A
weak cold front will move over the far northwest waters early next
week, then lift back as a warm front on Wed.

$$
MMTorres
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