[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning Expires at 26/1200 UTC...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga moved inland into southeastern
Louisiana around 26/0800 UTC. As of 26/0900 UTC, the cold front
extends from 29N90W to 25N90W to 22N91W, and continues as a
stationary front to 19N92W to 18N94W. Scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is over southern Mississippi, SW
Alabama and SE Louisiana. A line of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over the Gulf of Mexico just ahead of the
front from 24N-31N between 87W-90W. In the Bay of Campeche,
numerous strong convection is from 17N-22N between 91W-95W. In the
northern Gulf of Mexico and in the waters off Veracruz, the gale
warnings expire early this morning at 26/1200 UTC. Winds over most
of the Gulf of Mexico are forecast to diminish to below 25 kt by
this afternoon. See the latest High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Tropical Storm Pablo to move near Azores Tonight...

Tropical Storm Pablo is centered near 35.3N 30.3W at 26/0900 UTC
or 225 nm SW of the Azores moving ESE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt. On the forecast track, the small core of
Pablo will pass near or over the Azores tonight. Pablo is
expected to become extratropical on Sunday. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from
19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well-defined in
satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery, and model
diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of the
wave axis from 02N-09N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 15N48W to
02N49W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in
satellite imagery. Isolated showers are within 150 nm of the wave
axis from 07N-12N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 59W south of
21N, moving W around 15 kt, but the wave has become very weak and
difficult to track. The wave is in a dry environment and no
convection is present in the wave's area at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 81/82W
from 08N-22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 12N-21N between 75W-83W. This activity is
being enhanced by an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean that is
to the west of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 07N24W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to
07N36W to 08N45W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves described above, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen within 180 nm S and 120 nm N of the ITCZ
between 30W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information on the Gale
Warnings in the Gulf of Mexico and for all weather west of 87W.
In the eastern Gulf, some scattered moderate showers and tstorms
are near South Florida and Gulf waters from 25N-27N and east of
83W.

A strong cold front stretches from southern Louisiana to the Bay
of Campeche. Gale force winds W of the front near post-tropical
Olga and in the SW Gulf near Veracruz will diminish by sunrise
this morning. The front will stall and weaken from the Florida
Panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight and Sun. Weak
high pressure will prevail across the N central Gulf on Mon. A
cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf on Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave along
80W.

An upper-level low is centered over the NW Caribbean near 19N84W
enhancing the convection near and east of the tropical wave.
Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trades over the central
Caribbean between 66W-76W with moderate winds elsewhere.

Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean
through Wed night. A tropical wave in the west-central Caribbean
will reach Central America on Sun. A second tropical wave moving
into the Lesser Antilles will move across the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Sun. Large long period NE swell will reach the
Leeward Islands early Sun, and continue through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about T.S. Pablo and the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

An area of high precipitable water content extends across the Old
Bahama Channel. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen
from 22N-27.5N between 72W-83W, including over portions of the
Bahamas and South Florida. To the east, a stationary front
extends from 31N27W to 25N34W to 21N44W. A surface trough extends
from 25N30W to 19N40W to 18N47W. Scattered showers are 90-210 nm
SE of the front E of 28W. Isolated showers are near the surface
trough.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain gentle to
moderate E to SE winds across the region west of 65W through Wed
night. Large long period N swell related to the extratropical low
surrounding Pablo is currently affecting waters north of 22N
between 22W-56W. An altimeter pass from 26/0013 UTC shows
significant wave heights of 15-19 ft from 27N-31N between 36W-39W.
Wave heights of 12-17 ft will affect the waters from 22N-31N
between 30W-51W today due to the swell. NE swell of 5 to 7 ft will
spread westward to 70W early Sunday and last through Monday.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net