[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1007 mb low pressure
system located over the southwest Gulf of Mexico near 21.5N 94.5W
continue to show signs of organization. Numerous moderate with
embedded isolated strong convection is from 18N-30N between 90W-
97W. Although recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the
disturbance still does not have a well-defined center, further
development is anticipated, and there is a high chance that a
short-lived tropical depression will form later tonight or on
Friday. The system is forecast to merge with a cold front or
become post-tropical late Friday or Saturday over the central Gulf
of Mexico. Refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
hurricanes.gov for more information.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will reach the
western Gulf of Mexico around sunrise Friday morning, and push
into the Bay of Campeche on Friday afternoon. Gale force winds to
40 kt are expected behind the front south of 26N and west of 94W
beginning early Friday morning. Gales will continue in the SW Gulf
off Veracruz through Saturday morning before winds subside later
Saturday. Seas will build to 12-18 ft over the area late Friday
into early Saturday. See the latest High Seas forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 19W from
20N southward, moving W around 10 kt. The wave is very well
defined in satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery and
model diagnostics. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 03N-14N between the coast of Africa and 23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 41/42W
from 14N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is from 04N-11N between 37W-43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 22N50W to 06N52W,
moving W around 5 kt. The wave is in a dry environment, and no
showers are seen.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from 07N-21N,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 10N-21N between 67W-76W, including over the
Mona Passage. The convection is being enhanced by large scale
upper-level cyclonic flow over the central Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 07N22W to 06N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N32W to
07N39W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N43W to 07N50W.
Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section,
isolated to scattered moderate convection is seen within 210 nm of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 23W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on the low
that is currently producing convection over the western half of
the Gulf of Mexico. Also see the Special Features section
regarding the Gale Warning over the western Gulf of Mexico.

The eastern Gulf is free of significant convection east of a line
from Pensacola Florida to 21N90W. Only isolated showers are over
portions of the area. In the upper-levels, large scale upper-level
anti-cyclonic flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.

A strong cold front reach the NW Gulf early Fri morning, and reach
the Bay of Campeche Fri night, brining gale force winds west of
the front near the coast of Mexico Fri into early Saturday. The
elongated low pressure over the SW Gulf has a high chance of
becoming a tropical cyclone Friday before it merges with the cold
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Large scale upper-level cyclonic flow covers the central Caribbean
Sea. Aside from the convection between 67W-76W mentioned in the
Tropical Waves section above, isolated to scattered moderate
convection is from 11N-20N between 76W-83W. Isolated strong
convection is over Central America as well as the north coast of
W Venezuela. Latest ASCAT pass from Thursday morning showed fresh
winds over the central Caribbean and the area south of Cuba, with
moderate winds elsewhere over the basin.

Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean
through Mon night. A weak tropical wave over and south of
Hispaniola will move west into the western Caribbean by Fri night.
A second weak tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles Fri
night and approach Puerto Rico Sat night. Winds will be enhanced
near the tropical waves as they pass across the basin during the
next few days. Large long period NE swell will reach the Leeward
Islands Sun and continue through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to 29N71W to the
east-central coast of Florida near 27.5N80W. Isolated showers are
within 60 nm of the front as well as over southern and central
Florida. Broad upper-level cyclonic flow covers the area from
16N-25N between 55W-77W. Scattered moderate convection extends
from 18N-24N between 65W-76W, including the waters near Puerto
Rico and over Hispaniola and the southeast Bahamas. The west
Atlantic stationary front will weaken and dissipate by Fri
morning. High pressure off the mid-Atlantic U.S. east coast will
maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the forecast waters
through Sun night.

Farther east, a large 989 mb low is centered north of the area
near 36N37W. A cold front associated with this low enters the area
near 32N32W and extends to 28N36W to 25N45W to 27N52W to 31N56W.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is seen along and within
180 nm southeast of the front east of 40W. Strong to near gale
force winds are expected through Friday over much of the area
north of 25N between 24W-48W due to the large low and front.
Large, long period swells generated by this system will affect
waters north of 22N between 25W-55W on Friday. Seas of 17-23 ft
are expected Friday north of 28N between 35W-47W. By Sunday,
swells from the system will be impacting waters east of 70W.

$$
Hagen
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