[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Early morning visible satellite images indicate that the
circulation of a low pressure area in the Bay of Campeche has
become a little better defined. The associated showers and
thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, and this
system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it
merges with a cold front by late Friday. There is a medium
chane of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will reach the
NW Gulf Fri morning, and push into the Bay of Campeche on Fri
night, with gale force winds expected W of the front near the
coast of Mexico Fri into early Sat. Developing 1008 mb low pres
over the Bay of Campeche is producing numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms over the SW Gulf. The low will drift N and
could become a tropical depression before it merges with the
frontal boundary by late Fri. Gales will continue in the SW Gulf
off Veracruz into Saturday. Seas of 12-16 ft are expected. See the
latest High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is along 16W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is very well defined
in satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery and model
diagnostics. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
mostly south of the monsoon trough from 02N-14N between 13W-22W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 13N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-11N
between 37W-42W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 21N48W to 14N50W to
05N51W moving W at 10 kt. Total precipitable water imagery shows
limited moisture content near the wave limiting convection along
the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 15N-20N between 67W-71W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere over Venezuela.

A tropical wave extends from the SW Gulf of Mexico near 22N93W to
the East Pacific near 06N96W, moving W at 10 kt. The tropical
wave shows up well in model diagnostics. The northern portion of
the tropical wave in the eastern Bay of Campeche is interacting
with a warm front to produce scattered moderate to strong
convection from 18N-24N between 91W-96W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N16W to 06N25W to 06N33W. The ITCZ extends from 06N33W to
05N38W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 06N42W to near
07N49W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between
24W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends from 25N81W to 25N85W while
the line becomes more active from 25N86W to 24N96W in the central
Gulf. To the south, a surface trough extends from 23N26W to a 1008
mb low centered near 20N94W to 18N93W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is seen along the stationary front W of 89W, and
same activity is also seen along the trough axis near the low pres
from 19N24W to 91W-96W associated to the low pressure.

The stationary front will lift N as a warm front beginning this
afternoon and pass N of the Gulf by Sat. A strong cold front will
reach the NW Gulf Fri morning, and push into the Bay of Campeche
on Fri night, with gale force winds expected W of the front near
the coast of Mexico Fri into early Sat. Developing low pres over
the Bay of Campeche is producing numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms over the SW Gulf. The low will drift N and could
become a tropical depression before it merges with the frontal
boundary by late Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

For information regarding the tropical wave in the eastern
Caribbean, please see the section above.

Large scale upper-level cyclonic flow covers the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea north of 10N between 64W-84W. Scattered
moderate convection covers from Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba,
the Cayman Islands and Jamaica. In the SW Caribbean and Central
America, scattered moderate convection is seen from W of 75W to
85W near the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua.

Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean
through Mon night. A weak tropical wave will move west of Puerto
Rico into the central Caribbean today and into the western
Caribbean Sat. A second tropical wave will reach the Lesser
Antilles Fri night and approach Puerto Rico Sun. Winds will be
enhanced near the tropical waves as they pass across the basin
during the next few days. Large long period NE swell will reach
the Leeward Islands Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N68W to 29N70W, then transitions from
that point to a stationary front to 28N77W, then weakens near
27N80W north of Stuart Florida. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of the front. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from
31N34W to 28N44W to 30N53W. A prefrontal trough extends from
29N34W to 22N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm
SE of the trough. A 1023 mb high is over the E Atlantic near
37N10W.

A nearly stationary front from 31N68W to near West Palm Beach
Florida will weaken and dissipate through Fri. High pressure north
of the region will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds over
the forecast waters through Sun night. Large long period NE swell
will cause seas to build in SE waters E of 70W beginning on Sun.

$$
MMTorres
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