[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/33W, from 15N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: Isolated moderate
strong within 240 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 06N
to 11N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/49W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong within 360 nm to the east
of the tropical wave from 10N to 18N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/60W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: rainshowers
are possible within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern part of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
in the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula and in coastal
waters of the western Yucatan Peninsula, also extending a bit
into the NE part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere
in the Yucatan Peninsula, and from 24N southward between 82W and
92W. Precipitation for the Caribbean Sea: isolated moderate to
locally strong elsewhere from 15N northward from 80W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W. The ITCZ continues from 10N14W, to 04N30W 04N34W
04N40W 06N45W 06N50W and 06N54W in NW French Guiana.
Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N to
11N between 33W and 40W. Isolated moderate from the ITCZ
southward between 31W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A NE-to-SW oriented cold front cuts across the Gulf of Mexico,
from the coast of Florida from 29N to 30N between 83W and 84W,
into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near
21.5N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong to the
NW of the line that runs from 30N80W to 24N90W to 19N96W.

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern part of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
in the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula and in coastal
waters of the western Yucatan Peninsula, also extending a bit
into the NE part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere
in the Yucatan Peninsula, and from 24N southward between 82W and
92W.

The current cold front will become stationary by early
Wednesday, from near Sarasota, Florida into the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. Strong NE winds behind the front will continue
through Wednesday afternoon. The winds will veer gradually, and
be from the southeast across the basin on Thursday. This will
happen in advance of the next cold front, that is expected to
reach the Texas coast on Friday morning. Gale force NW to N
winds are expected in the western Gulf of Mexico, behind this
front, from Friday through Saturday afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 12N
northward from 80W eastward. Precipitation: Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong in the areas of upper
level cyclonic wind flow. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 14N southward from 77W westward, in an area of upper
level diffluent wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between NW Colombia near
74W, beyond NW Costa Rica and 85W/86W. Precipitation: Isolated
moderate from 12N southward from 75W westward.

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern part of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong elsewhere from 15N northward from 80W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 22/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.67 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras, 0.12 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.06
in Guadeloupe, 0.05 in Bermuda, 0.04 in St. Thomas in the
Virgin Islands, and 0.02 in Curacao.

A weak Bermuda high pressure center will promote moderate to
fresh trade winds across most of the basin through Friday night.
High pressure N of the basin will strengthen, after a tropical
wave moves across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, causing
the trade winds to freshen across the central sections.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N63W to 27N70W. A stationary front
continues from 27N70W to 28N74W, beyond 32N76W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to the north of the front, mainly from 77W
westward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is just off the
eastern coast of the Dominican Republic. This cyclonic center is
related to the trough that spans much of the eastern three-
fourths of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong from 17N to 23N between 60W and 68W.

A central Atlantic Ocean stationary front curves through 32N50W,
to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 28N52W. The
stationary front continues from the low pressure center, to
24N54W and 22N58W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 210
nm to the east of the stationary front. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere, from 22N northward between the stationary front and
the 32N63W 27N70W 32N76W frontal boundary.

An upper level trough is within 300 nm to 360 nm to the east of
the precipitation that is associated with the central Atlantic
Ocean stationary front. Upper level cyclonic wind flow also is
about 800 nm to the NE of the upper level trough. A surface
trough extends from a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near
32N36W, to 23N48W. A second surface trough is along 26N36W
23N42W 18N46W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
from 22N northward between 29W and 50W.

The current 27N70W 32N76W stationary front will dissipate by
Wednesday morning. The next cold front will move off the coast
of N Florida this evening, become stationary in central Florida
and north of the Bahamas by Thursday, gradually dissipating
along 27N by Friday night. High pressure will build from the
middle Atlantic coast into the western Atlantic Ocean in the
wake of this front.

$$
mt
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