[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221650
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30/31W from 03N-14N,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate showers are within 120 nm of
the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W from 02N-12N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well-depicted in TPW imagery and model
guidance. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-16N between
40W-49W. Additional moderate convection is from 19N-21N between
40W-43W.

A new tropical wave that originated from the mid-latitudes has
been added to the analysis along 58W from 05N-20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. This wave is well-depicted by model diagnostics.
Isolated moderate showers are seen along the wave axis from 10N-
12N.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W from 05N-21N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-
22N between 80W-90W. The northern end of this tropical wave is
expected to bring enhanced rainfall and thunderstorms to the Bay
of Campeche on Wednesday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 10N14W to 06N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 04N39W to 06N45W, then continues W of
a tropical wave from 07N50W to 05N53W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate
convection is seen from 08N-11N between 20W-28N, and from 04N-09N
between 34W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 22/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Tallahassee Florida
to 25N90W to the coast of Mexico near 21.5N97.5W to 22N99W.
Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is
from 19N-26N between 93W-100W, which includes portions of Mexico
from Tuxpan to Tampico. Strong NE winds are north of the front.
The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt SE to S return flow. Of
note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the
central CONUS to include Texas supporting the cold front. An upper
level high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N75W. Strong
subsidence is over S Florida and the SE Gulf.

The cold front will move SE and reach from near Tampa, FL to just
N of the Yucatan Peninsula to the western Bay of Campeche early
Wed, where it will stall and weaken through early Thu. Strong NE
winds behind the front will continue through Wed afternoon. The
northern end of the tropical wave currently along 87W will spread
enhanced moisture westward through the Bay of Campeche on Wed.
This moisture, combined with the leftover moisture from the
weakening front in the western Bay of Campeche, will lead to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the southwest Gulf of
Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will gradually veer southeast
across the basin Thursday in advance of the next cold front,
which is expected to reach the Texas coast Fri morning. Gale force
NW to N winds are expected over the western Gulf behind this
front Friday through Saturday afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western Caribbean tropical wave is producing a good amount of
convection W of 77W. See above.

A 1011 mb low along the East Pacific monsoon trough in the SW
Caribbean is near 10N77W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 08N-14.5N between 76W-82W. Elsewhere, a
broad, E-W oriented upper-level trough over the eastern and
central Caribbean is inducing scattered moderate showers and
isolated tstorms from 15N-18N between 65W-76W. Isolated showers
and tstorms are over the ABC Islands and vicinity. Moderate
tradewinds cover portions of the eastern and central Caribbean
Sea.

A weak Bermuda high will promote moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the basin through Fri night. An active tropical
wave along 87W will move W into Central America by tonight. High
pressure N of the basin will strengthen after another tropical
wave moves across the central Caribbean Sat, causing trade winds
to freshen across central portions.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from Bermuda to 28N70W, then continues as a
stationary front to 28N74W to 32N78W. Little to no showers are
noted. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 32N49W to
24N54W to 22N59W, dissipating to 22N65W. Isolated to scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the front. Scattered moderate
convection is seen northeast of Puerto Rico from 19N-22N between
62W-66W, enhanced by a small area of upper-level divergence shown
on the CIMSS - University of Wisconsin webpage. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper-level trough axis extends from 32N42W to
23N51W to 16N76W. Upper-level diffluence well east of this upper-
trough axis is enhancing isolated moderate convection within 60 nm
of a line from 31N31W to 27N32W to 24N39W.

The W Atlantic stationary front will dissipate by Wed morning. The
next cold front will move off the coast of N Florida this evening,
then become stationary over central Florida and north of the
Bahamas by Thu, gradually dissipating along 27N by Fri night. High
pressure will build from the middle Atlantic coast over the
western Atlantic in the wake of this front.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net