[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor has moved inland over the Florida
Panhandle as of 19/2100, centered near 30.4N 84.1W. Nestor is
moving to the NE at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
No deep convection is seen within 270 nm of the center. However,
scattered showers are along the eastern Gulf coast. The deeper
convection (scattered moderate to isolated strong) is seen inland
over portion of the SE. On the forecast track, the center of
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move across portions of the
southeastern United States tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is
expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the
western Atlantic by late Sunday. Gale-force winds are expected to
develop this evening in relation to Nestor over the west Atlantic
waters mainly north of 29.5N and west of 78W. These conditions
will continue through early Sunday morning. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC or
the website hurricanes.gov for more details. For more information
about the Gale Warning, refer to the High Seas Forecast product,
under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W from
14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
along the wave axis south of 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 14N38W to
00N40W, moving W around 10 kt. This position corresponds well with
where the models indicate the 700 mb trough axis. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is seen from 04N-14N between 34W-41W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 69W
from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Most recent ASCAT pass
continues to depict a surface trough with this wave. Scattered
moderate showers are seen from 11N-19N between 65W-73W and the
coast of Venezuela, Colombia, Puerto Rico, the Mona Passage and
Dominican Republic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N29W to 05N37W, then continues W of a tropical wave from
04N42W to 05N51W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical
waves described above, scattered moderate convection are along 380
nm N of the ITCZ between 33W-36W. Scattered showers are also off
Africa from 03N-10N, east of 09W-13W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Post-tropical cyclone Nestor is over the Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features section above for details.

A cold front extends SW from Nestor to 27N87W. A warm front
extends from Nestor to Tallahassee Florida. A 1010 mb surface
high pressure is located in the western Gulf of Mexico near
26N92W keeping fair weather for central and western Gulf.
ASCAT imagery show fresh to strong southerly wind ahead of the
front along the eastern Gulf. Scattered moderate convection
extends from near Key West to the Yucatan Peninsula.

Nestor will move quickly across the SE U.S. this evening through
Sun and emerge over water across coastal North Carolina late Sun
afternoon and move ENE across the W Atlc Mon and Tue. Marine
conditions will improve rapidly across the NE Gulf tonight through
Sun as Nestor moves off to the NE. A cold front will reach the NW
Gulf Mon night, then extend across the basin from northern
Florida to NE Mexico on Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level ridging and relatively dry air cover much of the
western portion of the Caribbean. The exception is in the Yucatan
Channel, where scattered moderate convection is seen north of 21N
and east of 87W. ASCAT shows fresh southerly winds in the Yucatan
Channel, as well as in the NW Caribbean north of 17N between 83W-
87W. Moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean,
except for locally fresh near the tropical wave along 69W. In the
SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered
moderate showers over Colombia, eastern Panama, and the Caribbean
waters.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across most of the basin
through Wed night. Fresh S to SE winds across the Yucatan Channel
will gradually diminish Sun as Tropical Storm Nestor accelerates
NE and exits the Gulf of Mexico. An active tropical wave along 70W
will move W and reach the western Caribbean by Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Atlantic north of
29.5N and west of 78W beginning this evening due to Post-
Tropical Cyclone Nestor. See section above for details. A warm
front extends from Nestor to Tallahassee Florida to 31N81W to
28N76W. See Special Features section above for description of
convection.

A cold front extends from 31N55W to 25N68W and transition to
a stationary front to 25N71W. A large mid-upper level trough digs
southward from the mid-latitudes to about 28N along 52W. Scattered
moderate showers and tstorms are seen from 25N-31N between 47W-54W.
Farther E, a surface trough is seen 19N33W to 26N31W associated to
an upper level low enhancing showers and tstorms north of the trough.

A weak cold front extends from 26.5N65W to 25N72W and will shift
E of the area late tonight. Post Tropical Cyclone Nestor over the
Florida Panhandle near 30.4N 84.1W at 2100 UTC will move NE across
the SE United States this weekend. Nestor will generate minimal
gale force S to SW winds north of 29.5N over the NW Atlc coastal
waters this evening. Weak high pressure will prevail over the area
Mon and Tue. A cold front will move off the coast of N Florida
Tue evening.

$$
MMTorres
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