[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Nestor has lost its tropical characteristics and is now a post-
tropical cyclone as of 19/1500 UTC, centered near 29.3N 86.3W, or
about 60 nm SSW of Panama City. Nestor is moving to the ENE at 8
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. No deep
convection is seen within 270 nm of the center. However, scattered
showers are over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The deeper
convection (scattered moderate to isolated strong) is seen within
the area bounded by 31N81W to 21N87W to 24N77W to 31N76W to
31N81W, which includes SE Florida, the NW Bahamas, Florida Straits
and Yucatan Channel. On the forecast track, Nestor will move
across portions of the southeastern United States later tonight
and Sunday. Gale-force winds are expected to develop later this
afternoon in relation to Nestor over the west Atlantic waters
mainly north of 29.5N and west of 78W. These conditions will
continue through early Sunday morning. Nestor is expected to move
offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic
by late Sunday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC or the website
hurricanes.gov for more details. For more information about the
Gale Warning, refer to the High Seas Forecast product, under
WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 23W from
14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate showers
are noted along the wave axis south of 11N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 14N37W to
08N39W to 01N40W, moving W around 10 kt. This position corresponds
well with where the models indicate the 700 mb trough axis. ASCAT
shows that a surface trough axis is along 36W or about 2 to 3
degrees east of the wave axis. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is more co-located with the surface trough, from 09N-
14N between 32W-38W. Scattered showers are seen from 08N-12N
between 28W-32W and also along and within 90 nm E of the wave axis
from 04N-09N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 69W
from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The most recent ASCAT
pass continues to depict a surface trough with this wave.
Scattered moderate showers are seen from 08N-18N between 62W-72W.

A tropical wave extends across Central America with axis along
88W from 02N-17N, moving W around 5 kt. The northern part of the
wave will soon be exiting the western Gulf of Honduras and exiting
the basin. Isolated showers are over the Gulf of Honduras south of
19N and west of 84.5W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N17W to 13N20W to 06N25W to
05N29W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to 06N33W, then continues W
of a tropical wave from 05N42W to 05N53W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical waves described above, isolated
showers are along and within 150 nm N of the ITCZ between 42W-46W.
Scattered showers are also off Africa from 02N-08N, east of 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Post-tropical cyclone Nestor is over the Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features section above for details.

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends SW from Nestor to 27N88W. A
warm front extends from Nestor to Tallahassee Florida to 30N80W.
A 1010 mb surface high pressure is located in the western Gulf of
Mexico near 26N92W. A 1007 mb surface low is west of Brownsville
Texas near 26N99W. Scattered moderate convection extends from near
Key West and Cape Sable Florida westward to the Yucatan Channel
from 21N-26N between 81.5W-87W.

Nestor will move inland along the Florida panhandle around 1800
UTC today, then move farther away from the Gulf of Mexico as it
moves NE over the southeastern U.S. and then into the western
Atlantic. Winds in the NE Gulf will diminish to below 25 kt this
evening and to below 15 kt Sunday morning. Wave heights in the NE
Gulf will subside to below 10 ft by late this afternoon and to
below 8 ft this evening. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf Mon
night, and extend across the basin from northern Florida to NE
Mexico on Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough axis is over the central Caribbean near, or
just west of, the tropical wave along 69W. The upper-trough is
acting to enhance the convection described above in the tropical
waves section. Upper-level ridging and relatively dry air cover
much of the western portion of the Caribbean. The exception is in
the Yucatan Channel, where scattered moderate convection is seen
north of 21N and east of 87W. ASCAT shows fresh southerly winds
in the Yucatan Channel, as well as in the NW Caribbean north of
17N between 83W-87W. Moderate trades prevail across the remainder
of the Caribbean, except for locally fresh near the tropical wave
along 69W. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is
inducing scattered moderate showers over NE Venezuela, N
Colombia, eastern Panama, and the Caribbean waters south of a line
from 13N71W to 10N80W.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across most of the
the basin through Wed night. Fresh SE winds are likely near the
Yucatan Channel today as Tropical Storm Nestor moves NE across
the Gulf of Mexico. The active tropical wave along 69W will move
W and reach the western Caribbean by Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Atlantic north of
29.5N and west of 78W beginning this afternoon due to Post-
Tropical Cyclone Nestor. See section above for details. A warm
front extends from Nestor to Tallahassee Florida to 30N80W to
27N75W. See Special Features section above for description of
convection.

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 27N64W to 25N70W. A large
mid-upper level trough digs southward from the mid-latitudes to
about 28N along 59/60W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated
tstorms are seen from 25N-31N between 45W-62W. Farther E, an
upper-level low is near 29N36W. Scattered showers and tstorms are
from 26N-31N between 32W-39W.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor over the NE Gulf of Mexico will move
NE across the SE United States this weekend. Nestor will generate
gale force S to SW winds over the NW Atlc waters north of 29.5N
and west of 78W this afternoon until early Sunday morning. Weak
high pressure will prevail over the area Mon and Tue. A cold front
will move off the coast of N Florida Tue evening.

$$
Hagen
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