[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 181555
HLSTAE
FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-190200-

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Local Statement Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL162019
1155 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 /1055 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/

This product covers EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA

**POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BRING IMPACTS TO THE REGION LATER TODAY
 INTO SATURDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - No changes.

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calhoun, Central
      Walton, Coastal Bay, Gadsden, Holmes, Inland Bay, Inland Dixie,
      Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor,
      Inland Wakulla, Jackson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison,
      North Walton, South Walton, and Washington
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf, Coastal
      Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, and Coastal Wakulla

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 390 miles southwest of PANAMA CITY or about 400 miles
      southwest of APALACHICOLA or about 470 miles southwest of
      TALLAHASSEE
    - 25.9N 90.0W
    - Storm Intensity 60 mph
    - Movement Northeast or 55 degrees at 22 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

OVERVIEW...

A disturbance over the Central Gulf of Mexico is expected to develop
into a tropical or subtropical storm later today or tonight, as it
moves northeast toward the region. Regardless of development, this
system will bring impacts to the region, beginning as early as tonight.
This includes the potential for life threatening inundation from storm
surge along the Florida Big Bend coast of 1 to 3 feet and minor
coastal flooding along the Panhandle coast. Also, expect high surf
with heights of 10 to 13 feet developing later today. Tropical storm
force winds of 39 mph or greater are likely near the Florida Panhandle
and Big Bend coasts. The tornado threat is elevated across the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend, as well as, our southernmost Georgia and
Alabama counties, where isolated tornadoes are possible. Given the fast
moving nature of the system, the flooding rain threat is minimal, with
only 2 to 4 inches of rain expected with isolated 6 inch amounts. To
reiterate, regardless of development, confidence in the aforementioned
impacts is increasing.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the Florida Big Bend east of Indian Pass. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the eastern Florida Panhandle coast.

Elsewhere across EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, little to no impact is anticipated.

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible significant impacts
across the EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE and the FLORIDA BIG BEND.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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