[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 181546
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-190000-

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Local Statement Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Mobile AL  AL162019
1046 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

**NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE SYSTEM STRONGER**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baldwin Central,
      Baldwin Coastal, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Mobile
      Central, Mobile Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland,
      Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 360 miles south-southwest of Pensacola FL or about 380
      miles southwest of Destin FL
    - 25.9N 90.0W
    - Storm Intensity 60 mph
    - Movement Northeast or 55 degrees at 22 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 10:00 AM CDT, Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen continues to
advance northeast across the central Gulf of Mexico. This cyclone is
expected to gradually strengthen into a tropical or subtropical storm
later today and be positioned over the north central Gulf of Mexico by
late this afternoon. The system is forecast to near the coast later
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds along the immediate coastline of the western
Florida Panhandle will likely range between 30 to 40 mph, with gusts
up to 55 mph. Further west along the immediate coastal sections of
southwest Alabama, maximum sustained winds between 25 and 35 mph, with
gusts up to 50 mph. Winds are expected to be lower across inland
portions of coastal counties. The strongest winds are expected tonight.

Rainfall amounts between 2 and 4 inches east of I-65 are likely, with
isolated higher amounts possible, especially south of I-10. This may
lead to nuisance flooding in poor drainage areas. Rainfall totals are
expected to remain below flash flood guidance at this time.

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect with inundation of 1 to 2
feet expected tonight and Saturday morning, especially around the time
of high tide. A High Surf Warning is now in from Fort Morgan, AL east
to Destin, FL with breaker heights of 8 to 12 feet developing later
today into early Saturday morning. A High Surf Advisory remains in
effect for Dauphin Island with breaker heights of 5 to 8 feet.

Prepare now for damaging winds, minor coastal flooding, strong rip
currents, and periods of heavy rainfall across locations in the
Tropical Storm Warning area.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
coastal sections of southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across coastal portions of southwest Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle. Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
High surf with breaker heights of 8 to 12 feet from Fort Morgan, AL
east to Destin, FL will develop later today into early Saturday morning.
A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for Dauphin Island with breaker
heights of 5 to 8 feet. This pounding surf will create minor coastal
flooding with inundation of 1 to 2 feet expected tonight into Saturday
morning, especially at the time of high tide. Minor to moderate beach
erosion will also occur through the period. There is a high risk of rip
currents through Saturday night due to increased swell height and strong
easterly winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 4 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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