[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A gale is forecast for the western Atlantic starting Sunday
06/0600 UTC. A cold front is forecast from 31N53W to 28N60W to
27N70W to 29N80W. Gale force winds are expected N of 28N between
56W and 63W, with seas 8-12 ft.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W from 04N-15N, moving
W at 10 kt. Total precipitable water imagery depicts the wave.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the
coast of W Africa from 03N-14N between 11W-17W. Scattered showers
are elsewhere within 90 nm of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W from 02N-14N, moving
W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-10N between
41W-44W.

An E Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W from 06N-22N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Recent ASCAT imagery depicts the wave very well.
Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N22W to 06N40W. The ITCZ extends west of
a tropical wave from 06N44W to the coast of French Guiana near
05N53W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
03N-09N between 22W-39W. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N-09N between 45W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 mb low is centered N of the Yucatan Peninsula near 23N88W.
10-15 kt winds are going around the low. A surface trough extends
from 24N86W to the low center to N Guatemala near 17N90W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the south central Gulf of
Mexico from 22N-26N between 85W-93W. In the upper levels, an upper
low is centered over S Texas near 27N98W. Isolated moderate
convection is over the NW Gulf, N of 23N and W of 94W.

Weak high pressure will remain centered north of the region
through early next week. A cold front will move into the northern
and western Gulf early next week. A broad trough of low pressure
just north of the Yucatan Peninsula will move westward over the
Bay of Campeche during the next few days. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected with this feature.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above.

Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
over the NW Caribbean from 16N-22N between 75W-87W. Further S,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW
Caribbean from 10N-13N between 76W-80W.

Convection over the NW Caribbean is expected to continue through
at least late Sat night as an upper-level trough just to the
north of the western Caribbean shifts eastward. The tropical wave
will move across the eastern Caribbean this afternoon through Sat
night, then across the central Caribbean through Mon and the
western Caribbean Mon night through Tue night. Moderate to fresh
trades will continue over the central and eastern Caribbean
through the period. Light and variable winds over the northwestern
Caribbean will become generally light southeast to south winds
late on Sun. Northerly swell associated with a cold front north of
the area will build seas east of the Lesser Antilles Mon through
Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb high is centered off the coast of South Carolina near
32N72W. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 29N76W to
24N74W. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-27N between
69W-76W, to include the S Bahamas. A 1014 mb low is over the W
Atlantic near 28N64W. A surface trough extends from 31N60W to to
the low center to 25N67W. Isolated moderate convection is within
120 nm of the trough axis. A 1022 mb high is over the central
Atlantic near 29N87W.

A trough northeast of the Bahamas will weaken through Sat. A cold
front will move into the northern waters on Sat followed by
strong higher pressure. The resultant tight pressure gradient is
expected to bring strong to near gale force northeast to east
winds across the north-central section beginning late on Sat, and
strong to minimal gale force across the northeast section Sun and
Sun night. These winds are expected to diminish on Mon. Along with
the increasing winds, seas will build over these same waters,
with northerly swell propagating through the remainder of the
waters northeast and east of the Bahamas through Mon evening. The
swell will subside on Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will accompany the front. The front will stall and weaken Sun
night, then lift northward as a warm front Mon.

$$
Formosa
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