[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041057 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Fri Oct 04 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate within 740 nm to the SE of the monsoon trough between
07W and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W, from 16N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Any nearby precipitation is
from 04N to 08N between 40W and 47W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W/60W, from 19N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 19N between 58W and 61W,
within 100 nm on either side of the tropical wave.
Isolated moderate to locally strong within 90 nm on either side
of the line that runs from 09N52W to 14N56W to 20N57W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N24W and 06N36W. Precipitation:
Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 250 nm to the SE
of the monsoon trough between 20W and 40W, and within 120 nm to
the NW of the monsoon trough between 20W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in Texas, between
San Antonio and Houston. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
Texas, Mexico, and the Gulf of Mexico from 87W westward.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate N of 23N from 90W
westward. isolated moderate from 23N southward from 90W westward.

The northern part of a surface trough is in the Yucatan Channel
and partly along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
This trough has been the subject of the forecasts for the last
few days, while it was first in the NW Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N southward from 90W
eastward. Significant development of this system is not
expected. It is forecast to move slowly westward across the
northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, and over the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, during the next few days.

Weak high pressure will remain to the north of the region
through early next week. It is possible that a cold front may
move into the N and W Gulf of Mexico early next week. A NW
Caribbean Sea broad area of low pressure will move westward,
across the Yucatan Peninsula, and into the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico, during the next few days. Scattered rainshowers and
thunderstorms are expected with this feature.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center is
near 27N73W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW
Bahamas. A surface trough passes through the Yucatan Channel, to
the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, curving along the
eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, through Belize, into
eastern sections of Guatemala. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong, in clusters, within 240 nm to the south of Cuba
between 75W and 83W, including surrounding Jamaica. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 75W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 11N74W in N Colombia, to N coastal
Panama along 80W, and northwestward beyond the border of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally
strong from 12N southward from 75W westward.

The current NW Caribbean Sea broad area of low pressure will
move westward to the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula
today and tonight. Upper level divergence will continue to
support rainshowers and thunderstorms in Cuba and the adjacent
waters through the weekend. A tropical wave will move through
the eastern Caribbean Sea today and on Saturday, and then into
the central Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Moderate to fresh winds
will dominate the central and eastern Caribbean Sea waters well
into next week. Northerly swell, associated with a cold front N
of the area, will support 8 foot sea heights to the east of the
Lesser Antilles on Monday and Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of KAREN are a surface trough that is along 30N61W
28N65W 27N66W 26N69W. A second surface trough, from the NW to
the SE, is along 72W/74W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong from 20N to 30N from 46W westward.

A trough that is to the northeast of the Bahamas will weaken
through Saturday. A cold front will move into the northern
waters on Saturday. Strong to near gale force northeast to east
winds will be affecting the waters N of the Bahamas through
Monday evening. Building seas associated with the front will
affect the waters more to the south, to the east of the Bahamas
through Tuesday. Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms will
accompany the front. The front will stall and weaken on Sunday
night, and then move northward as a warm front on Monday.

$$
mt
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