[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Oct 03 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Possible rainshowers are
within 600 nm to the NE of the wave, and within 700 nm of the
wave from 12N to 20N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15N54W 11N56W 07N58W,
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 600 nm to the NE of the line that extends
from 11N63W to 07N47W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N17W, to 07N23W. The ITCZ continues from 07N23W
to 06N26W 06N37W 07N40W and 10N54W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong within 600 nm to the SE of
the monsoon trough from 20W eastward. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough
between 24W and 28W; within 60 nm to the north of the ITCZ
between 33W and 40W, and within 120 nm to the south of the ITCZ
between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, near 23N96W, about 170 nm to the SSE of
the southernmost point of the Texas Gulf coast. Broad upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 28N southward.

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 19N85W in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from the low
pressure center into the Yucatan Channel. It is possible that
some of the precipitation that is in the SE corner of the Gulf
of Mexico may be related to the 1008 mb low pressure center.

The current 1008 mb NW Caribbean Sea low pressure center will
drift NW, and open into a trough by Friday night, and move into
the Yucatan Peninsula. A cold front will move into the northern
Gulf of Mexico on Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 19N85W in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from the low
pressure center into the Yucatan Channel. Another part of the
trough extends southwestward to central Honduras. Precipitation:
isolated moderate from the easternmost coastal point of
Honduras, northward, to the Yucatan Channel, from 80W westward,
to the coastal plains of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and
Guatemala, and western sections of Honduras. Scattered moderate
to strong, in the waters that are between Haiti and Jamaica, and
within 160 nm of the southern coast of Cuba.

The current 1008 mb NW Caribbean Sea low pressure will drift W
to NW today. A tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles
tonight, and it will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on
Friday and on Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of KAREN are a 1012 mb low pressure center that is
near 27N66W. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from
30N63W, to the low center to 24N70W. A second surface trough
extends from the low center to 23N67W. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 20N to
30N between 46W and the troughs and low pressure center.

A stationary front passes through 32N30W to 30N36W to 31N49W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 140 nm
to the south of the front between 39W and 43W.

A trough NE of the Bahamas will weaken through Friday. A cold
front will move into the northern waters on Saturday. Expect
strong NE to E winds and building seas to the north of the
front. The front will stall and weaken on Sunday night, and then
move northward as a warm front early next week.

$$
mt
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