[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Oct 03 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Possible rainshowers are
within 500 nm to the NE of the wave, and within 700 nm of the
wave from 12N to 20N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 14N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is from the ITCZ to 17N between 46W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 15N17W, to 08N24W, and 07N28W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N28W to 06N40W 11N54W, and NE Venezuela near 08N61W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 600 nm to the SE of the monsoon trough between 10W and
20W. Isolated moderate to locally strong within 200 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ between 24W and 39W;
and within 360 nm to the north of the ITCZ, and within 240 nm to
the south of the ITCZ, between 46W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, near 23N96W, about 170 nm to the SSE of
the southernmost point of the Texas Gulf coast. Broad upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 28N southward.

The pressure gradient, between SE U.S.A. high pressure and NW
Caribbean Sea weak low pressure, will support fresh NE to E
winds in the east central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night.
The low pressure center will pass close to or across the Yucatan
Peninsula on Thursday night. The low pressure center will move
into the SW Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and open into a surface
trough during this weekend. NE winds will become fresh in the NW
Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Monday night, as a cold front moves
SE across the northern waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 mb low pressure center is along 84W, about 180 nm to 190
nm to the S of NW Cuba and to the north of Honduras.
Precipitation: isolated moderate in and along the coast of
Honduras, and in eastern Guatemala. Scattered to numerous strong
is in the coastal waters of Cuba from 81W eastward to the
Yucatan Channel. The upper level winds are expected to be
unfavorable for development into a tropical cyclone during the
next few days. It is possible that the environmental conditions
may become a little more conducive for some slow development to
occur, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward near or
over the Yucatan Peninsula and into the the southern Gulf of
Mexico, by the weekend and early next week.

A broad area of low pressure in the NW Caribbean Sea will move
NW slowly, toward the Yucatan Peninsula and the Yucatan Chanel
through Thursday night. Fresh trade winds will prevail in the
east central Caribbean Sea, from tonight through Friday night.
The winds will range from moderate to fresh from Saturday
through Monday. A tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles
by Thursday night, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea from
Friday through Saturday, and then cross the central and
western Caribbean Sea on Sunday and Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of KAREN are a 1011 mb low pressure center that is
near 28N67W. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from
31N63W, to the low center to 22N72W in the SE Bahamas.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated strong within 240 nm to the E/SE of the surface trough
and 1011 mb low pressure center.

A second surface trough is along 28N46W 21N55W. A third surface
trough is along 22N60W 16N58W. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong from 22N northward
between 47W and 60W.

A cold front passes through 32N28W to 28N39W. The front becomes
stationary, and it continues from 28N39W to 33N55W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate within 120 nm on either side of
the frontal boundary between 39W and 45W.

Gentle to moderate NE winds will persist through Thursday night,
between a broad area of low pressure NE of the Bahamas and weak
high pressure offshore of the Carolinas. The low pressure center
will move NE, away from the region on Friday, ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front will move southward into the
northern waters on Saturday, with strong NE to E winds following
the frontal passage, and the seas will be building to 8-12 feet.
The fastest wind speeds and the highest sea heights are expected
north of 27N and east of 77W. The front is forecast to stall in
the northern waters on Sunday, and then move northward as a warm
front early next week.

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net