[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
552 AM EST Thu Nov 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING...

Gale force winds are along the coast of N Colombia with 10-12 ft
seas. Winds will drop below gale force this morning at 28/1200
UTC. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under
the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING...

A cold front traversing the Atlantic waters will bring gale force
winds north of 30N between 57W-60W Thursday night and Friday
morning. Expect gale force SW winds prior to the frontal passage,
then shifting to NW following the frontal passage. Seas will reach
11-16 ft. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast
under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W, from 18N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection
is noted along the wave axis.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 90W, from 21N
southward, moving W at 10-15 knots. Isolated moderate convection
is within 240 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N12W to
05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N30W to N Brazil near
03N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-06N
between 08N-12N. Similar convection is from 03N-08N between 24W-
37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 28/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from N Florida near
30N80W to 28N88W, continuing as a stationary front to 28N97W to
23N97W. A cold front continues S to Tampico Mexico near 22N98W.
No significant convection is noted along the front. Surface
ridging extends over S Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. 15-20
kt NE winds are N of the front.

The front will move through the southeast Gulf of Mexico tonight,
and stall and dissipate over the western Gulf. Winds and seas
will diminish over the Gulf Fri and Sat as weak ridging builds in
north of the Gulf. On Sun and Mon, a new cold front will move
across the N and central Gulf, with enhanced NW to N winds
building in behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale force winds are along the coast of N Colombia for a few more
hours. See section above for details. Two tropical waves are over
the Caribbean. See section above for details.

Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 11N.
Elsewhere, relatively dry air and no significant precipitation
are over the basin, other than that due to the western Caribbean
tropical wave. ASCAT imagery shows strong trades over the central
Caribbean from 10N-17N between 71W-80W, with locally near gales
closer to the coast of N Colombia.

A moderate pressure gradient south of the Bermuda High will be
forcing strong to gale force winds across the S central Caribbean
and to near the coast of Colombia through the morning. A large
extratropical cyclone east of the mid-Atlantic states will reduce
the gradient through Mon, weakening the NE tradewinds to fresh
breezes or less across the Caribbean. On Sat large N swell will
begin impacting the offshore Atlantic waters east of the Lesser
Antilles and continue through at least Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale-force winds are forecast Thu night and early Fri. Please
read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details.

A 1018 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 32N58W. A surface
trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N46W to a 1013 mb low
near 26N52W to 20N57W. Scattered moderate convection is within
240 nm E of the trough. A 1020 mb high is over the E Atlantic
near 27N35W.

Weakening high pressure over the area will shift eastward through
this morning in response to an approaching cold front. This cold
front will quickly move across the area through Fri with enhanced
NW to N wind building in behind the front. Associated large NW to
N swell will spread across the area Sat and diminish by early Mon.
After winds become quiescent on Sat to early Sun, another cold
front will reach the far NW waters Sun night and move across the
area through Mon. Strong to possibly gale force winds are expected
on either side of the front northeast of the Bahamas early next
week.

$$
Formosa
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