[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1247 AM EST Thu Nov 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING...

Winds to gale force are expected overnight for portions of the
waters near the coast of N Colombia along with seas of 10-12 ft.
Winds will then drop below gale force Thursday morning. Please
refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS
header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING...

A cold front traversing the Atlantic waters will bring gale force
winds north of 25N between 47W-69W Thursday night and Friday
morning. Expect gale force SW winds prior to the frontal passage,
then shifting to NW following the frontal passage. Seas will reach
12-16 ft in the area by early Friday morning. Please refer to the
Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header
MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W, from 18N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection
is noted along the wave axis.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W, from 21N
southward, moving W at 10-15 knots. Widely scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N12W to
05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N30W to N Brazil near
03N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-06N
between 08N-12N. Similar convection is from 03N-08N between 24W-
37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 28/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from N Florida near
30N83W to 28N91W, continuing as a stationary front to 27N96W to a
1016 mb low off Brownsville TX near 26N97W. A cold front continues
S of the low to N of Tampico Mexico near 22N98W. No significant
convection is noted along the front. Surface ridging extends over
the Florida peninsula into the E Gulf. 15-20 kt NE winds are N of
the front.

By Thu afternoon the western portion of the front will retreat
northward as a warm front back over Texas. As the front dissipates
Fri, quiescent conditions will prevail Fri and Sat while weak
ridging builds in north of the Gulf. On Sun and Mon, a new cold
front will move across the N and central Gulf, with enhanced NW to
N winds building in behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale force winds are expected tonight near the coast of N Colombia.
See section above for details. Two tropical waves are over the
Caribbean. See section above for details.

Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 11N.
Elsewhere, relatively dry air and no significant precipitation
are over the basin, other than that due to the western Caribbean
tropical wave. ASCAT imagery shows strong trades over the central
Caribbean from 10N-17N between 71W-80W, with locally near gales
closer to the coast of N Colombia.

A moderate pressure gradient south of the Bermuda High will be
forcing strong to gale force winds across the S central Caribbean
and to near the coast of Colombia tonight into early Thu. From Thu
afternoon through at least Mon, a large extratropical cyclone
east of the mid-Atlantic states will reduce the gradient and
weaken the NE tradewinds to fresh breeze or less across the
Caribbean. On Sat large N swell will begin impacting the offshore
Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles and continue through
at least Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale-force winds are forecast Thu night and early Fri. Please
read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details.

A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 28N74W. A surface
trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N47W to a 1015 mb low
near 25N53W to 20N58W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180
nm E of the trough. A 1020 mb high is over the E Atlantic near
26N36W.

Weakening high pressure over the area will shift eastward through
early Thu in response to an approaching cold front. This cold
front will quickly move across the area Thu and Fri with enhanced
NW to N wind building in behind the front. Associated large NW to
N swell will spread across the area on Sat and diminish by early
Mon. After winds become quiescent on Sat to early Sun, another
cold front will reach the far NW waters Sun night and move across
the area through Mon. Strong to possibly gale force winds are
expected on either side of the front northeast of the Bahamas
early next week.

$$
Formosa
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