[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1216 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING...

The 42-hour forecast for the coastal waters of Colombia, consists
of: gale-force NE-to-E winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet
to 13 feet, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W. The wind speeds
are forecast to be less than gale-force at 48 hours. Please refer
to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header
MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING...

The 42-hour forecast position for a cold front is 31N59W 26N69W
TO 25N80W. Expect gale-force NW winds, and sea heights ranging
from 10 feet to 15 feet, N of 29N within 180 nm to the W of the
cold front. The 48-hour forecast position of the cold front is
31N55W 25N65W 24N80W. Expect gale-force SW winds, and sea heights
ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, N of 29N within 210 nm to the E
of the cold front. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas
Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header
FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and
within 60 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 15N southward.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/86W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong within 120 nm of the coasts
of the western one-third of Panama, to Costa Rica, to the extreme
SE corner of Nicaragua. Other precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong extends from the eastern sections of
Nicaragua, to eastern Honduras, to the NW Caribbean Sea that is
about 90 nm to the north of the eastern half of Honduras, to a
distance of 300 nm to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
from 18N to 20N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of southern
Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from
05N15W to 03N32W and 03N42W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
within 330 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within
120 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has moved into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
for the 27/1200 UTC surface map analysis. The cold front stands
out well in visible satellite imagery, with a distinct line of
clouds. The cloud line passes through the Florida Panhandle,
southernmost Mississippi, SE Louisiana, into the NW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, to the Deep South of Texas. Rainshowers are
possible in the line of clouds. No other significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico.

The current cold front will reach from the western Florida
Panhandle to Brownsville Texas this afternoon. The eastern part
of the front will sweep southeastward across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico through Thursday night, reaching the Straits of Florida.
The western part of the front will move northward, and inland in
Texas, as a warm front, from Thursday through Friday. A second
cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
night. The second cold front will reach from the western Florida
Panhandle to far southern Texas early on Sunday; and from near
west central Florida to far northeastern Mexico on Sunday night.
Mainly fresh northerly winds are expected behind this front,
except for fresh to strong winds in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds are forecast for the coastal waters of Colombia.
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details.

The GFS model is forecasting a 250 mb trough, that extends from
the north central coast of Venezuela, to the coast of Guyana and
into central Suriname. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate and isolated strong covers the inland areas and the
coastal waters from 02N to 12N between 50W and 68W. The areal
coverage includes the following countries and coastal waters:
Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, Suriname, and French
Guiana, and other surrounding islands that are in the eastern and
SE Caribbean Sea. The northern extent of the same 250 mb trough
passes about halfway between the NE Caribbean Sea islands and
Puerto Rico, reaching the north central coast of Venezuela.

Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected across the S
central Caribbean Sea, and near the coast of Colombia, from late
tonight into early Thursday. Fresh to strong winds are expected
elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea through Thursday. The
fresh to strong winds are forecast to spread westward across the
W central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong northeast winds will
pulse downwind of the Windward Passage, in the Lee of Cuba, and
the Lee of the Dominican Republic, during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale-force winds are forecast at 42 hours into the forecast cycle,
with a cold front. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for
more details.

A stationary front passes through 32N51W to 31N55W, curving to
28N61W. A surface trough extends from 29N57W, to a 1018 mb low
pressure center that is near 27N57W, to 21N61W. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong within
630 nm to the east of the surface trough/1018 mb low pressure
center, from 21N northward.

A second stationary front is near the Madeira Archipelago, passing
through 32N17W 26N32W 30N38W, to a 1018 mb low pressure center
that is near 28N41W. A surface trough continues from the low
pressure center to 25N42W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within
180 nm to the south of the stationary front from 30W eastward.

A thin line of rainshowers is along 25N74W 27N76W 32N77W, to the
ENE and N of the Bahamas.

High pressure that covers the area will shift eastward and
weaken through early Thursday, in response to an approaching cold
front. This cold front will move across the area quickly, on
Thursday and Thursday night. The front will be followed by fresh
to strong west to northwest winds across the NE forecast waters,
and by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds elsewhere, as a
new area of high pressure builds into the region. Large northerly
swell is forecast to propagate across the waters E of the Bahamas
from Friday through Saturday night. A second cold front will
reach the northwest waters on Sunday night. Strong to gale force
winds and building seas are expected on either side of the second
cold front early next week.

$$
MT
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