[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed Nov 27 05:41:22 CST 2019


AXNT20 KNHC 271141
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Surface high pressure will build over the western Atlantic. In
response to the tightening of the pressure gradient across the
central Caribbean, trade winds strengthen to gale-force tonight
through early Wed near the coast of Colombia. Seas will build to
10-13 ft by early Wed in this area. Similar conditions will repeat
by late Wed night through early Thu. Please refer to the Atlantic
High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the
WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 67W south of
17N, moving W at 15 kt. The tropical wave is evident in TPW
imagery and infrared satellite imagery. Scattered showers are
noted from 14N-17N between 65W-69W and near the coast of
Venezuela.

A tropical wave in the SW Caribbean is along 83W south of 19N,
moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 09N-19N along the coastal areas of Nicaragua and Honduras.
between 80W-85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes over the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N12W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N33W to
03N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong are present from
05N-07N between 48W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, while a low pressure
system is building across the south-central CONUS. The pressure
gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh
winds across the Gulf waters, with strongest winds prevailing
across the western half of the basin. A mix of patchy to areas
of fog are seen from Deep South Texas along the NW Gulf of Mexico
into the coast of Louisiana. Southerly flow prevails across the
Gulf ahead of the approaching cold front which is about 100 nm
from the coast. Debri high clouds are increasing across the NW
Gulf from a low pressure in the EPAC. Light to moderate showers
are possible in the NW Gulf. Clear conditions are noted over the
Bay of Campeche ESE across the SE Gulf.

The cold front will enter the NW Gulf this morning, reaching from
the western Florida panhandle to near Brownsville, Texas Wed
afternoon. The eastern part of the front will sweep southeastward
across the eastern Gulf through Thu night reaching the Straits of
Florida. The western part of the front will lift back to the N and
inland Texas as a warm front Thu through Fri. Another cold front
is forecast to move into the NW Gulf Sat night and reach from SW
Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico by early Mon morning. Mainly
fresh northerly winds are expected behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the sections above for more information on the Gale
Warning and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

Mid-level anticyclonic flow extends from the southern Bay of
Campeche eastward across the Greater Antilles, leading to
relatively dry weather across Cuba and Hispaniola. The latest
ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the basin, with
strongest winds prevailing between 64W-78W. Aside from the
convection associated to the tropical wave, scattered showers and
tstorms are seen along the Windward Islands.

Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected across the S
central Caribbean through early today and again tonight into early
Wed. A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Fresh to strong winds are expected elsewhere across the central
Caribbean through Thu with these winds spreading across the W
central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse downwind of
the Windward Passage, in the Lee of Cuba and the Lee of the
Dominican Republic through the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed from
31N52W to 29N59W to 27N65W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N54W
to a 1013 mb low pressure near 28N56W to 23N67W. A second trough is
seen to the SE from 26N57W to 21N58W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is north of 22N-31N between 48W-57W. A warm front
extends from the low to 28N35W, then transitions into a cold front
from that point to 30N22W. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb high near 29N21W.

A ridge will dominate the forecast waters today and tonight. A
cold front will sweep across the area Thu and Thu night followed
by fresh to strong W to NW winds across the NE forecast waters,
and by moderate to fresh N to NE winds elsewhere as a new area of
high pressure builds over the region. Large northerly swell is
forecast to propagate across the waters E of the Bahamas Fri
through Sat night. Another cold front will reach the northwest
waters Sun night. Strong to gale force winds and building seas are
expected on either side of the front early next week.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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