[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Surface high pressure will build over the western Atlantic through
tonight. In response to the tightening of the pressure gradient
across the central Caribbean, trade winds will strengthen to
gale-force tonight through early Wed near the coast of Colombia.
Seas will build to 10-13 ft by early Wed in this area. Similar
conditions will repeat by late Wed night through early Thu.
Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS
header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 65W south of
17N, moving W at 15 kt. The tropical wave is evident in TPW
imagery, model diagnostics, and infrared satellite imagery.
Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis.

A tropical wave in the SW Caribbean is along 81W south of 19N,
moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the
the vicinity of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes over the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to
07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 03N31W to 05N50W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are from 04N-08N between
22W-28W. Isolated showers are seen along the ITCZ west of 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, while a low pressure
system is building across the south-central CONUS. The pressure
gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh
winds across the Gulf waters, with strongest winds prevailing
across the western half of the basin. ASCAT indicates fresh winds
are present north of 21N-25N.

Fresh to strong southerly return flow dominates the western Gulf
ahead of a cold front forecast to move to just offshore the Texas
coast early Wed. The front will reach from the western Florida
panhandle to near Brownsville, Texas Wed afternoon. The eastern
part of the front will sweep southeastward across the eastern Gulf
through Thu night reaching the Straits of Florida. The western
part of the front will lift back to the north and inland Texas as
a warm front Thu through Fri. Another cold front is forecast to
move into the NW Gulf Sat night and reach from SW Florida to near
Veracruz, Mexico by early Mon morning. Mainly fresh northerly
winds are expected behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the sections above for more information on the Gale
Warning and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

Mid-level anticyclonic flow extends from the southern Bay of
Campeche eastward across the Greater Antilles, leading to
relatively dry weather across Cuba and Hispaniola. The latest
ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the basin, with
strongest winds prevailing between 64W-78W. Scattered showers and
tstorms are extend from the coast of Guyana to Trinidad and Tobago.

Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected across the south-
central Caribbean tonight and again Wed night. A Gale Warning is
in effect near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are
expected elsewhere across the central Caribbean through Thu with
these winds spreading across the west-central Caribbean. Fresh to
strong northeast winds will pulse downwind of the Windward
Passage, in the Lee of Cuba and the Lee of the Dominican Republic
through the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed from
31N58W to 27N65W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 23N68W to
31N55W and about 200 nm SE a second trough extends from 21N59W to
26N56W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 22N-31N between
49W-56W. To the east, a 1018 mb surface low is centered near 26N40W.
A warm front extends from the low to 29N38W, then transitions into
a cold front from that point to 28N27W to 31N22W. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1020 mb
high near 33N32W and another 1020 mb high near 29N19W.

A ridge will dominate the forecast waters through Wed night. A
cold front will sweep across the area Thu and Thu night followed
by fresh to strong west to northwest winds across the northeast
forecast waters, and by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds
elsewhere as a new area of high pressure builds over the region.
Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate across the waters E
of the Bahamas Fri through Sat night. Another cold front will
reach the northwest waters Sun night. Strong to gale force winds
and building seas are expected on either side of the front early
next week.

$$
MMT
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