[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262335
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Surface high pressure will build over the western Atlantic through
tonight. In response to the tightening of the pressure gradient
across the central Caribbean, trade winds will strengthen to
gale-force tonight through early Wed near the coast of Colombia.
Seas will build to 10-13 ft by early Wed in this area. Similar
conditions will repeat by late Wed night through early Thu.
Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS
header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 64W south of
17N, moving W at 15 kt. The tropical wave is evident in TPW
imagery, model diagnostics, and infrared satellite imagery.
Scattered moderate convection is noted to the east of the wave
axis mainly south of 12N between 55W-62W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with axis near 80W from 09N-
20N, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes over the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 05N25W to
04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are from 03N-08N between the west coast of Africa
and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, while a low pressure
system is building across the south-central CONUS. The pressure
gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh
winds across the Gulf waters, with strongest winds prevailing
across the western half of the basin.

A cold front, associated to the low pressure system over the US
Plains, will move to just offshore the Texas coast early Wed,
reaching from the western Florida panhandle to Brownsville by Wed
afternoon. The eastern part of the front will sweep southeastward
across the eastern Gulf through Thu night, become stationary over
the Straits of Florida Fri, and dissipate by late Sat night. The
western part of the front will lift back to the north and inland
Texas Thu through Fri. Another cold front may move into the NW
Gulf Sat night and quickly reach from west-central Florida to the
central Gulf and to east-central Mexico by late Sun. Mainly fresh
northerly winds are expected behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the sections above for more information on the Gale
Warning and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

Mid-level anticyclonic flow extends from the southern Bay of
Campeche eastward across the Greater Antilles, leading to
relatively dry weather across Cuba and Hispaniola. The latest
ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the basin, with
strongest winds prevailing between 60W-70W.

Winds will peak to gale-force near the coast of Colombia late
tonight into early Wed, and again late Wed night into early Thu.
The trades will diminish by the weekend as high pressure north of
the area weakens. Fresh to strong northeast winds will pulse
downwind of the Windward Passage, in the Lee of Cuba and the Lee
of the Dominican Republic through the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal system extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed as a
cold front from 31N59W to 29N67W, then becomes stationary from
that point to 28N71W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N57W to
24N68W. To the east, a 1018 mb surface low is centered near
27N40W. A warm front extends from the low to 29N34W, then
transitions into a cold front from that point to 31N24W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1020 mb high near 27N32W and another 1020 mb high near 30N21W.

A cold front will sweep across the area Thu and Thu night,
followed by fresh to strong northwest winds across the northeast
forecast waters, and by moderate to fresh north to northeast
elsewhere behind the front as a new area of high pressure builds
east- southeastward over the region. Large northerly swell is
forecast to propagate across the waters E of the Bahamas Fri
through Sat night. Another cold front will approach the northwest
waters late Sat night preceded by increasing southwest winds.
These winds may reach gale force over much of the northwest and
north-central forecast waters Sun afternoon and night. Strong to
near gale force winds are expected behind the front. Expect winds,
both east and west of the front, to build seas to large values.

$$

ERA
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