[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1225 AM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Surface high pressure will build over the
western Atlantic Tue into Tue night. Trade winds will strengthen
to minimal gale force overnight Tue near the coast of Colombia, in
response to a tightening pressure gradient across the central
Caribbean. Seas will build to 12 ft overnight Tue into Wed in
association with the expected gales. Please refer to the Atlantic
High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the
WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 58W/59W south of 16N, moving
west around 15 kt. The tropical wave is evident in TPW imagery,
model diagnostics, and infrared satellite imagery. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 56W and 61W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 75W/76W south of
18N, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 16N to 18N between 74W and 76W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes over the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to 03N30W to
03N40W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 19W and 25W, and from 05N
to 08N between 39W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the Straits of Florida to near
22N90W. Shower activity has diminished along the boundary tonight.
Elsewhere, 1014 mb high pressure is centered over the eastern Gulf
near 27N84W. Earlier scatterometer data indicated moderate to
locally fresh SE to S winds west of 90W, while the latest surface
obs support light and variable winds across the eastern Gulf.

The front will weaken through late tonight. Weak high pressure
over the NE Gulf will shift northeast of the basin by early Tue
with fresh to locally strong southerly return flow setting up over
the western Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to move
into the NW Gulf by early Wed. This front will weaken and become
stationary in the northern Gulf by Wed night. Moderate to fresh
southeast return flow will prevail across the western Gulf Thu
through Sat with another cold front entering the NW Gulf by late
Sat or Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for more information
on the Caribbean gale warning, and see the Tropical Waves section
above for details on wave activity in the central Caribbean.

Elsewhere, the Caribbean remains relatively quiet with isolated
showers noted well south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
Drier air prevails across the western Caribbean as seen in GOES-16
water vapor products. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to
locally strong winds near the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf
of Venezuela, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere
across the basin.

Fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean Tue will strengthen
to minimal gale force overnight Tue near the coast of Colombia.
The fresh to strong trades will spread to the W central Caribbean
Wed with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, except pulses of fresh
to strong downwind of the Windward Passage, Lee of Cuba, and Lee
of Dominican Republic. A surge of fresh to strong trades and large
fresh seas will move across the tropical N Atlantic S of 15N
tonight through early Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on wave
activity in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from the central Atlantic well north of the
forecast area to 30N66W, then continues as a stationary front
across the northern Bahamas to 24N78W to the Straits of Florida.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm east of the
front north of 30N. Elsewhere, a surface trough is analyzed over
the outer offshore waters from 29N63W to 23N69W. Another cold
front extends SW across the eastern Atlantic, enters the forecast
waters near 32N27W, and continues to weak low pressure analyzed
near 28N37W. An upper low located south of the Cabo Verde Islands
is supporting shower activity near the area. Elsewhere, a surface
high pressure ridge extends from 31N18W to 26N30W.

The first front described above will gradually weaken late
tonight into Tue. High pressure will build in the wake of this
front. Another cold front is forecast to move across the forecast
waters Thu and Thu night with fresh to strong W to NW winds
affecting the NE waters. Mainly northerly winds are expected
across most of the forecast area in the wake of the front by Fri.
Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate across the waters E
of the Bahamas Fri through Sat. A high pressure center is
expected to develop over the north-central waters on Sat.

$$
Reinhart
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