[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 57/58W from 16N
southward, moving W at around 15 kt. The tropical wave shows up
well in TPW imagery, model diagnostics and the visible imagery.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-12N between 56W-
60W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 74W from
18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are
noted in the northern portion of the wave from 15N-18N between
71W-75W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N13W
to 09N15W. The ITCZ continues from 09N15W to 05N30W to 05N44W to
09N56W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ from
03N-08N between 14W-31W and from 06N-11N between 39W-55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends eastward out of Cuba near 22N84W to
the central Gulf near 22N91W. A dying warm front also extends from
22N91W to 23N96W. Light showers are seen along the boundaries.
High pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1015
mb high in the eastern Gulf near 27N87W. The latest scatterometer
data depicts light to gentle winds across the basin.

The front will weaken through tonight. Relatively weak high
pressure north of the front will shift northeast of the basin by
early Tuesday. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf by
early Wednesday, then weaken and become stationary in the
northern Gulf by Wednesday night. Moderate to fresh southeast
return flow will prevail across the western Gulf Thursday through
Saturday with another cold front entering the NW Gulf by Saturday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, the
basin is relatively quiet with drier air prevailing through the
area. The latest scatterometer pass depicts moderate trades across
most of the basin except over the northwest portion, where light
winds prevail.

The stationary front extending across western Cuba to
just north of the Yucatan Channel will weaken through tonight.
Gentle to moderate trades will increase to moderate to fresh
tonight, then to fresh to strong in the central Caribbean Tuesday
and Tuesday night, peaking at near gale near the coast of
Colombia overnight Tuesday. The fresh to strong trades will
spread to the W central Caribbean Wednesday with moderate to
fresh winds elsewhere, except pulses of fresh to strong downwind
of the Windward Passage, Lee of Cuba, and Lee of Dominican
Republic. A surge of fresh to strong trades and large fresh seas
will move across the tropical N Atlc S of 15N tonight through
early Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

A cold front enters the western Atlantic near 31N64W and extends
to the Bahamas near 25N76W to NW Cuba near 23N81W. A pre-frontal
trough is analyzed from 24N72W to 30N63W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen near these features from 26N-31N between
57W-67W. A cold front is also seen in the central Atlantic,
entering the forecast waters near 31N31W and stretches
southwestward near 24N42W. Showers are seen within 100 nm of the
front. An upper low over the Cabo Verde Islands is bringing
showers across these islands. Otherwise, high pressure dominates
the rest of the basin anchored by a 1019 mb high near 30N26W.
Latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict fresh
winds near the cold front in the western Atlantic.

The cold front will become stationary and weaken from near 31N65W
to the central Bahamas by this evening. High pressure will build
in the wake of the front. Another cold front is forecast to move
across the forecast waters Thursday and Thursday night with fresh
to strong W to NW winds, and large northerly swell affecting the
NE waters. Mainly northerly winds are expected across most of the
forecast area in the wake of the front by Friday.

$$
AKR
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