[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251147
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
646 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 53W from 14N
southward and is moving W at 15 kt. The tropical wave shows up
well in TPW imagery, model diagnostics and the visible imagery.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 08N-14N
between 49W-57W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 67W from 16N
southward and is moving W at 10-15 kt. A few showers are in
the vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to
04N37W to 07N48W. Aside from the convection related to tropical
waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N-
06N between 14W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Straits 24N79W to north of
the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N88W, continuing as a stationary
front to a 1013 mb low pressure near 20N95W. A stationary front
extends south of this low towards Mexico near 18N94W. A line of
showers extend along the front and the low. A surface trough
extends northwest of the low pressure to near 22N96W. High
pressure continues to build behind the front anchored by a 1016 mb
high near 26N92W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh NW winds behind the front near Key West and moderate
easterly winds. Light winds are seen in the NW Gulf near the high.

A cold front extending from the Straits of Florida to along 20N
will stall and weaken over the same area today. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front from W to E, shifting NE of the
basin by early Tue. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf
by early Wed, weakening and stalling in the northern Gulf by Wed
night. Moderate to fresh SE return flow will prevail across the
western Gulf Thu through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is seen near 12N80W to 17N75W east of Jamaica.
Isolated showers are possible along the trough axis. In the
eastern Caribbean near the Windward Islands, scattered moderate
convection is seen from 15N southward to Trinidad and Tobago.
Scattered showers are also seen south of Hispaniola from 14N-17N
between 71W-73W. The remainder of the Caribbean is relatively
quiet with drier air present across the Greater Antilles. The
latest scatterometer pass shows fresh winds across portions of the
central Caribbean between 72W-79W with moderate winds elsewhere
in the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle winds are in the NW
basin west of the trough axis.

The front will begin to dissipate later today. Gentle to moderate
trades will increase to moderate to fresh tonight, then to fresh
to strong in the central Caribbean Tue and Tue night, peaking at
near gale near the coast of Colombia overnight Tue. The fresh to
strong trades will spread to the W central Caribbean Wed with
moderate to fresh elsewhere, except pulses of fresh to strong
downwind of the Windward Passage, Lee of Cuba, and Lee of Dominican
Republic. A surge of fresh to strong trades and large fresh seas
will move across the tropical N Atlc S of 15N tonight through
early Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the gale
warning in the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N67W to the northern Bahamas near
26N77W and across the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and
tstorms are seen 100 nm southeast of the front and north of 26N.
Surface trough ahead of the front extends from the central Bahamas
near 22N74W to 30N67W. Additional scattered showers are present N
of 30N between 59W-67W moving northeast in the periphery of the
1019 mb high centered near 30N50W. Three troughs are noted to the
south, one north of PR, the second trough extends from 18N52W to
24N49W, and third from 19N45W to 25N45W. Scattered showers are
near the vicinity of these troughs. A cold front is seen entering
the forecast area near 30N35W to 26N41W. Scattered moderate
convection extends 180 nm southeast of the boundary and north of
25N. Meanwhile, an upper level low is near 24N21W. This is
producing scattered showers and tstorms from 22N-29N between
15W-24W near the Canary Islands. Surface high pressure dominates
the rest of the basin anchored by a 1019 mb high near 30N50W and
a 1021 mb high near 31N17W. A trough is seen from 28N19W to 31N19W.
Latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict
moderate to fresh easterly north of the ITCZ from 36W-52W.

The cold front will stall and weaken from 31N65W to the central
Bahamas by this evening. High pressure will build in the wake of
the front. Another cold front is forecast to move across the
forecast waters Thu and Thu night with fresh to strong W to NW
winds, and large northerly swell affecting the NE waters. Mainly
northerly winds are expected across most of the forecast area in
the wake of the front by Fri.

$$
MMT
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