[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 51W from 14N
southward and is moving W at 15 kt. The tropical wave shows up
well in TPW imagery and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is seen from 05N-14N between 48W-56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 66W from 16N
southward and is moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection
is currently associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to
05N30W to 03N37W to 01N49W. Aside from the convection related to
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 01N-07N
between 15W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SW Florida near 25N81W southwestward to
SE Gulf, then stalls from 24N84W to a 1013 mb low near 21N94W. A
stationary front extends south of this low toward Mexico near
18N95W. A line of showers extend along the front and the low.
High pressure continues to build behind the front anchored by a
1016 mb high near 28N94W. Latest scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. Light winds are seen
in the NW Gulf near the high.

The front will stall and weaken over the same area through Mon
morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front from W
to E, shifting NE of the basin by early Tue. The next cold front
is expected to move into the NW Gulf by early Wed, weakening and
stalling in the northern Gulf by Wed night. Moderate to fresh SE
return flow will prevail across the western Gulf Thu through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough axis extends from the Windward Passage to
the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border. A surface trough is seen near the
same area, extending from 10N81W to east of Jamaica near 18N75W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the trough axis. In
the eastern Caribbean near the Windward Islands, scattered
moderate convection is seen from 09N-13N between 59W-62W. The
remainder of the Caribbean is relatively quiet with drier air
present across the Greater Antilles. The latest scatterometer
pass shows fresh winds across portions of the central Caribbean
between 72W-79W with moderate winds elsewhere in the eastern and
central Caribbean. Gentle winds are in the NW basin.

Gentle to moderate trades will prevail across the area through
tonight with mainly northerly winds across the NW Caribbean. Winds
will begin to increase across the south-central Caribbean late on
Mon. Then, expect fresh to strong winds across the central part
of the basin Mon night through Thu night, with these winds
spreading westward toward the coast of Nicaragua Tue night through
Wed night. At that time, strong to near gale force winds are also
forecast near the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the gale
warning in the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N69W to the northern Bahamas near
26N77W to south of Hollywood, Florida near 25N80W. Scattered
showers and tstorms are seen N of 28N-31N between 67W-71W. A
surface trough ahead of the front extends from the central
Bahamas north to 30N68W. Additional scattered showers are present
N of 25N to 31N in the periphery of the 1019 mb high further east
near 33N50W. Two pair of troughs are noted north of PR and the
other extending from 18N53W to 24N47W. Scattered showers are near
the vicinity of these two troughs. A forming cold front is seen
entering the forecast area near 31N35W to 26N42W. Scattered
moderate convection extends about 350 nm east of the boundary.
Meanwhile, an upper level low near 24N21W has a surface trough
associated with it, analyzed 24N28W to 30N24W. Showers with
isolated thunderstorms are seen from 22N-28N between 16W-24W,
including the Cabo Verde Islands. Surface high pressure dominates
the rest of the basin anchored by a 1019 mb high near 33N50W and
a 1022 mb high near 32N16W. Latest scatterometer data and surface
observations depict moderate NW winds behind the cold front.

The front will reach from 31N67W to Western Cuba by Mon morning,
then stall and begin to weaken on Mon night. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front. Another cold front is forecast to
move across the forecast waters Thu and Thu night with fresh to
strong W to NW winds affecting the NE waters. Mainly northerly
winds are expected across most of the forecast area in the wake of
the front by Fri.

$$
MMT
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