[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241150
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Sebastien, at 24/0900 UTC, is near
36.0N 40.0W. Sebastien is moving NE at 28 kt. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 994 mb with maximum sustained wind
speeds up to 55 kt and gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen 400 nm in the northeastern quadrant. An
additional increase in speed toward the northeast is expected
during the next day. On the forecast track, the center of
Sebastien will pass near the western Azores tonight. A slow
decrease in the maximum winds is expected during the next couple
of days. Sebastien is forecast to become post-tropical tonight and
then merge with another weather system over the northeastern
Atlantic on Tuesday. The Public Advisories for Sebastien are
available via AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC. The
Forecast/Advisories for Sebastien are available via the AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 44W from 11N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen along the wave axis from 5N-12N between 41W-46W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 62W from 13N
southward and is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen in
the vicinity of the wave axis near the Windward Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues at that point to 03N29W
to 05N41W, then west of the tropical wave from 04N46W to 04N51W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen along the monsoon
trough near the coast of Liberia and Sierra Leone between 09W-13W.
A line of showers and thunderstorms are about 100 nm north of the
ITCZ from 01N-08N between 16W-30W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is seen along the ITCZ from 03N-08N between 30W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is pushing across the central and western Gulf,
entering the waters from FL near 28N82W and stretching SW across
the Gulf to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W. Showers with
isolated thunderstorms are within the front. A pre-frontal
trough near 160 nm SE of the front is producing scattered showers
and tstorms N of 26N across the Florida Peninsula to 84W.
Surface ridging is building right behind the front in the western
Gulf. Scatterometer data depicts gentle SW winds in the eastern
Gulf with moderate NW winds behind the front.

The cold front will reach from near Florida Bay to just NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula this evening, stalling and weakening from the
Straits of Florida to near the Yucatan Channel by early Mon. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front from W to E, shifting
NE of the basin by early Tue. The next cold front is expected to
move into the NW Gulf by early Wed, weakening and stalling in the
northern Gulf by Wed night. SE return flow around high pressure
over the Carolinas will prevail Thu and Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively quiet weather is seen across the basin with upper high
centered near the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers and tstorms
are noted from 13N-15N between 64W-70W. Latest scatterometer
depicts fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean, gentle
trades in the southern basin, and moderate to fresh trades across
the rest of the basin.

Gentle to moderate trades will prevail through this evening,
increasing to moderate to fresh outside of the NW Caribbean
tonight. Winds will continue to increase to moderate to fresh
throughout, except fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean
through the early part of the week. Strong to near gale force
winds are forecast near the coast of Colombia Tue night into Wed.
Fresh to strong trades will spread from the S central portion to
the W central by mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extends south of T.S. Sebastien from 17N55W to a 1013 mb
low near 22N51W to 30N42W. Scattered showers and tstorms extend
from 19N-28N between 45W-50W. An upper level low near 24N33W is
bringing an area of scattered showers from 20N-30N between 17W-
30W. High pressure dominates the rest of the area anchored by a
1019 mb high in the western Atlantic near 28N68W and a 1022 mb
high in the eastern Atlantic near 30N27W.

High pressure located SE of Bermuda extends a ridge to S Florida.
A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move across Florida
today, reaching from Bermuda to the central Bahamas to the Straits
of Florida by early Mon where it will stall and gradually wash
out through Tue. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side
of the front mainly N of 28N. The front will stall from 30N65W to
27N75W to western Cuba on Tue while weakening. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front. Another cold front is forecast to
move across the basin Thu through Thu night.


$$
AKR
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